Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Probabilistic dam breach flood modeling: the case of Valsamiotis dam in Crete

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Flooding from dam failure has disastrous downstream impacts resulting in loss of life, damage to buildings and infrastructure, and crop destruction. This study aims to evaluate the potential flood risks due to the hypothetical overtopping breach of the Valsamiotis dam and assess potential impacts on the downstream residential and rural areas. The analysis is based on seven peak discharge exceedance probability (EP) scenarios through a Monte Carlo approach derived by the McBreach software for a plausible range of breach parameters. The flood wave progression was simulated with the use of HEC-RAS 2D and a high-resolution digital elevation model. The overall inundated area ranged from 7.59 to 7.79 km2. Uncertainty of floodplain roughness was examined by considering a range of Manning’s roughness coefficient. Maximum flood depths and velocities were examined, and flood arrival times at various depths were analyzed to support flood risk mapping. The monetary losses of the affected buildings were estimated to vary from 20 to 37 million euros. The annual losses of crop yield were also considerable, ranging between 8.5 and 8.8 million euros. The breach formation time as well as the final bottom width of the breach are found the most critical parameters affecting the peak breach discharge. The results show that the nearby downstream villages are at high risk for all the scenarios. In particular, at Vatolakkos village the maximum depth values ranged from 4.8 to 8.6 m, which was achieved in 7–17 min after the dam breaking, whereas at Koufos village reached on average 2.1 m in 27–38 min, according to the EP scenarios. Moving downstream at the catchment outlet, Platanias coastal area is influenced to a lesser degree. An extensive area of fruit trees including oranges and avocados, of the order of 6.62–6.78 km2, is simulated as highly impacted. The range of probabilistic dam breaching and associated downstream inundation simulations is a comprehensive framework to quantify the uncertainty of flood risks due to dam breach. The results can facilitate decision-making toward management planning for civil protection, emergency action plans, and well-organized adaptation to risks related to life and property caused by possible dam failure.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

Download references

Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, 73100, Akrotiri, Chania, Crete, Greece

    Sofia Sarchani & Aristeidis G. Koutroulis

Authors
  1. Sofia Sarchani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Aristeidis G. Koutroulis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study's conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by all authors. The first draft of the manuscript was written by all authors, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Aristeidis G. Koutroulis.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendix

Appendix

See Figs.

Fig. 15
figure 15

Flood wave arrival time of 0.5 m depth for the seven EP scenarios (roughness coefficient n = 0.2)

Full size image

15,

Fig. 16
figure 16

Flood wave arrival time of 1 m depth for the seven EP scenarios (roughness coefficient n = 0.2)

Full size image

16,

Fig. 17
figure 17

Flood wave arrival time of 2 m depth for the seven EP scenarios (roughness coefficient n = 0.2)

Full size image

17,

Fig. 18
figure 18

Flood wave arrival time of 0.5 m depth for the seven examined roughness coefficients, at the 50% EP scenario

Full size image

18,

Fig. 19
figure 19

Flood wave arrival time of 1 m depth for the seven examined roughness coefficients, at the 50% EP scenario

Full size image

19,

Fig. 20
figure 20

Flood wave arrival time of 2 m depth for the seven examined roughness coefficients, at the 50% EP scenario

Full size image

20, and

Fig. 21
figure 21

Inundated buildings of Vatolakkos and Koufos villages for which economic losses were estimated for the seven EP scenarios

Full size image

21.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sarchani, S., Koutroulis, A.G. Probabilistic dam breach flood modeling: the case of Valsamiotis dam in Crete. Nat Hazards 114, 1763–1814 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05446-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05446-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation