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Debris flow magnitude, frequency, and precipitation threshold in the eastern North Cascades, Washington, USA

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Abstract

We examine the magnitude, frequency, and precipitation threshold of the extreme flood hazard on 37 low-order streams in the lower Stehekin River Valley on the arid eastern slope of the North Cascades. Key morphometric variables identify the magnitude of the hazard by differentiating debris flood from debris flow systems. Thirty-two debris flow systems are fed by basins < 6 km2 and deposited debris cones with slopes > 10°. Five debris flood systems have larger drainage areas and debris fans with slopes 7–10°. The debris flood systems have Melton ruggedness ratios from 0.42–0.64 compared to 0.78–3.80 for debris flow basins. We record stratigraphy at seven sites where soil surfaces buried by successive debris flows limit the age of events spanning 6000 years. Eighteen radiocarbon ages from the soils are the basis for estimates of a 200 to1500-year range in recurrence interval for larger debris flows and a 450 ± 50-year average. Smaller events occur approximately every 100 years. Fifteen debris flows occurred in nine drainage systems in the last 15 years, including multiple flows on three streams. Summer storms in 2010 and 2013 with peak rainfall intensities of 7–9 mm/h sustained for 8–11 h triggered all but one flow; the fall 2015 event on Canyon Creek occurred after 170 mm of rain in 78 h. A direct link between fires and debris flows is unclear because several recent debris flows occurred in basins that did not burn or burned at low intensity, and basins that burned at high intensity did not carry debris flows. All but one of the recent flows and fires occurred on the valley’s southwest-facing wall. We conclude that fires and debris flows are linked by aspect at the landscape scale, where the sunny valley wall has flashy runoff due to sparse vegetation from frequent fires.

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the National Burned Area Emergency Response Program and North Cascades National Park. Special thanks to Nelson Siefkin and Jack Oelfke for their support. We also acknowledge Vicki Gempko, Colin Dowey, Kara Jacobacci, Graham Messe, and Kathryn Ladig for their field support, remote sensing, and GIS expertise. Two anonymous reviewers significantly improved this contribution.

Funding

This research was supported by the US National Park Service and the National Burned Area Emergency Response Program.

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  1. U.S. National Park Service, Marblemount, USA

    Jon L. Riedel & Sharon M. Sarrantonio

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  1. Jon L. Riedel
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Correspondence to Jon L. Riedel.

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Riedel, J.L., Sarrantonio, S.M. Debris flow magnitude, frequency, and precipitation threshold in the eastern North Cascades, Washington, USA. Nat Hazards 106, 2519–2544 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04553-8

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