Abstract
Karakoram mountains range in north-western part of Himalayas is about 500 km in length and hosts some of the world’s highest peaks and longest glaciers. It is characterized by steep slopes and polar climate. Snowfall and avalanches are observed almost throughout the year. Many lives have been lost in the past in these mountains due to avalanches. This study focuses on avalanche hazard mitigation work undertaken in eastern part of Karakoram mountains, a complex of glaciers including Siachen and other connected glaciers on the eastern side of Saltoro Ridge. From the forecasting point of view, the snowpack on the slopes of Karakoram mountains almost always has unstable layers and hence continual avalanche threat exists. The structural mitigation measures are infeasible due to steep, unstable and glaciated terrain. The method of slope stabilization by preventive triggering of small avalanches holds promise but necessary infrastructure is difficult to install and maintain. Consequently, the effective avalanche hazard mitigation in the area is a challenging task. The paper describes the general terrain, climatological and avalanche characteristics of the area. Further, it elaborates the infrastructure set up, various tools and products developed to assist the avalanche practitioners in organizing safe camping and movements in the area particularly the snow-meteorological observatory network, weather modelling products, avalanche forecasting models, terrain visualization tools, hazard mapping and risk analysis, and experiences of preventive triggering of avalanches.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
IST: Indian Standard Time (UTC + 05:30).
The Cartosat satellites are a series of optical earth observation satellites built and operated by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) under the Indian Remote Sensing Program.
References
Barbolini M (1998) VARA one- and two-dimensional models. In: Harbitz C (ed) A survey of computational models for snow avalanche motion. NGI, Norway, pp 59–63
Bartelt P, Lehning M (2002) A physical SNOWPACK model for the Swiss avalanche warning: part I: numerical model. Cold Reg Sci Technol 35(3):123–145
Bourova E, Maldonado E, Leroy J, Alouani R, Eckert N, Bonneyfoy-Demongeot M et al (2016) A new web-based system to improve the monitoring of snow avalanche hazard in France. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 16:1205–1216
Buhler Y, Kumar S, Veitinger J, Christen M, Stoffel A, Snehmani (2013) Automated identification of potential snow avalanche release areas based on digital elevation models. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1321–1335
Buser O (1983) Avalanche forecast with the method of nearest neighbors: an interactive approach. Cold Reg Sci Technol 8:155–163
Canadian Avalanche Association (2002) Land managers guide to snow avalanche hazards in canada. In: Jamieson J, Stethem C, Schaerer P, McClung D (eds) Canadian Avalanche Association, Revelstoke, BC
Cappabianca F, Barbolini M, Natale L (2008) Snow avalanche risk assessment and mapping: a new method based on a combination of statistical analysis, avalanche dynamics simulation and empirically-based vulnerability relations integrated in a GIS pplatform. Cold Reg Sci Technol 54(3):193–205
Christen M, Kowalski J, Bartelt P (2010) RAMMS: numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain. Cold Reg Sci Technol 63(1–2):1–14
Dimri AP, Chevuturi A (2016) Western disturbances—an indian meteorological perspective. Springer, Basel
Eckerstorfer M, Bühler Y, Frauenfelder R, Malnes E (2016) Remote sensing of snow avalanches: recen advances, potential and limitations. Cold Reg Sci Technol 121:126–140
European Commission—Joint Research Centre (2003) Recommendations to deal with snow avalanches in Europe (vol EUR 20839 EN). In: Hervás J (eds) Luxembourg: office for official publications of the European Union
Fabiola FP, Mario LS (2010) Simple air temperature estimation method from MODIS satellite images on a regional scale. Chil J Agri Res 70(3):436–445
Ganju A, Dimri A (2004) Prevention and mitigation of avalanche disasters in western himalayan region. Nat Hazards 31:357–371
Gusain HS, Chand D, Thakur N, Singh A, Ganju A (2009) Snow avalanche climatology of Indian western himalaya. In: proceedings of international symposium on snow and avalanches manali (India): snow avalanche study establishment, pp 85–39
Gusain HS, Mishra VD, Arora MK, Mamgain S, Singh DK (2016) Operational algorithm for generation of snowdepth maps from discrete data in indian western himalaya. Cold Reg Sci Technol 126:22–29
Gusain HS, Negi HS, Dhamija S, Mishra VD, Snehmani (2019) Development of avalanche information system using remote sensing and GIS technology in the Indian Karakoram Himalaya. Curr Sci 117(1):104–109
IUGS Working Group on Landslides, Committee on Risk Assessment (1997) Quantitative risk assessment for slopes and landslides—the state of the art. In: Cruden D, Fell R (eds) landslide risk assessment In: proceedings of the international workshop on landslide risk assessment, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, 19–21 February 1997. Balkema AA, Rotterdam, pp 3–12
Kanda N, Negi HS, Rishi MS, Shekhar MS (2018) Performance of various techniques in estimating missing climatological data over snow bound mountainous areas of Karakoram Himalaya. Meteorol Appl 25:337–349
Kanna N, Gupta S, Prakasam KS (2018) Micro-seismicity and seismotectonic study in Western Himalaya–Ladakh-Karakoram using local broadband seismic data. Tectonophysics 726:100–109
Kashani MH, Dinpashoh Y (2012) Evaluation of efficiency of different estimation methods for missing climatological data. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 26(1):59–71
Kumar A, Negi HS, Kumar K, Shekhar C, Kanda N (2019) Quantifying mass balance of East-Karakoram glaciers using geodetic technique. Polar Sci 19:24–39
Lukas S, Margreth S (2009) Artificial avalanche release above settlements. In: Proceedings—international snow science workshop, Davos, Switzerland, pp 572–576
MMML (2019) The weather research forecasting model. (National Centre for Atmospheric Research) Mesoscale Microscale Meteorology Laboratory: https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model
National Research Council (1990) Snow avalanche hazards and mitigation in the United States. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC
Negi HS, Datt P, Thakur NK, Ganju A, Bhatia VK, Kumar VG (2017) Observed spatio-temporal changes of winter snow albedo over the north-west Himalaya. Int J Climatol 37(5):2304–2317
Salm B (1993) Flow, flow transition and runout distances of flowing avalanches. Ann Glaciol 18:221–226
Salm B, Burkard A, Gubler H (1990) Berechnung von Fliesslawinen: eine Anleitung für Praktiker mit Beispielen.Mitteilung 47. Eidg. Institut für Schnee- undLawinenforschung SLF
SASE (2000) Annual Glacier Report 1998–99. Snow avalanche study establishment, Manali, India
Sharma SS, Ganju A (2000) Complexities of avalanche forecasting in Western Himalaya—an overview. Cold Reg Sci Technol 31(2):95–102
Sharma V, Mishra VD, Joshi PK (2014) Topographic controls on spatiotemporal snowcover distribution in northwest Himalaya. Int J Remote Sens 35(9):3036–3056
Simioni S, Schweizer J (2018) Comparing two methods of artificial avalanche triggering: gas vs. solid explosives. In: Proceedings—international snow science workshop, Innsbruck, Austria, pp 158–161
Singh A, Ganju A (2002) Earthquakes and avalanches in western Himalaya. In: proceedings of 12th symposium on earthquake engineering.2, Roorkee (India): Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, pp 287–295
Singh A, Damir B, Deep K, Ganju A (2015) Calibration of nearest neighbors model for avalanche forecasting. Cold Reg Sci Technol 109:33–42
Singh A, Deep K, Grover P (2017) A novel approach to accelerate calibration process of a k-nearest neighbours classifier using GPU. J Parallel Distrib Comput 104:114–129
Singh A, Srinivasan K, Ganju A (2005) Avalanche forecast using numerical weather prediction. Cold Reg Sci Technol 43:83–92
Singh DK, Gusain HS, Mishra VD, Gupta N (2018) Snow cover variability in North-West Himalaya during last decade. Arab J Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3926-3
Yilmaz KK, Hogue TS, Hsu KL, Sorooshian S, Gupta HV, Wagener T (2005) Intercomparison of rain gauge, radar, and satellite-based precipitation estimates with emphasis on hydrologic forecasting. J Hydrometeorol 6(4):497–517
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to Internal Paper Review Committee and Director SASE for review and approval to publish this paper. The contribution of various SASE personnel in ground surveys, setting up observatories/AWS and data observation over the years is sincerely acknowledged. Indian Army logistically supported the field activities. Maj Gen SS Sharma (Retd), former Director SASE, extensively promoted preventive avalanche triggering in Indian Himalaya. We thank SASE data management team for providing necessary data used in the study. Jagmohan Bhardwaj substantially assisted in literature survey. SNOWPACK and RAMMS models were implemented with the support of WSL/SLF, Davos (Switzerland). We gratefully acknowledge the critical comments and suggestions offered by two anonymous reviewers in shaping this manuscript. We specially thank Editor-in-chief James Goff and editorial staff for their support during the publication process through the pandemic times.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Singh, A., Juyal, V., Kumar, B. et al. Avalanche hazard mitigation in east Karakoram mountains. Nat Hazards 105, 643–665 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04329-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04329-6