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Role of market agents in mitigating the climate change effects on food economy

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Abstract

Agriculture’s ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change is critical for agricultural households as well as the general public and policymakers. Economic agents can play a vital role in adapting to climate disasters. We use a global computable general economic model (GTAP) to assess the role of the domestic market and international trade in mitigating agriculure production losses due to climate change, taking barley as an example. Our results suggest that under the worst-case scenario of extreme events, the domestic and international market imperfections would cause the losses in domestic supply for barley importers to increase by 3.5% and 0.6%, respectively. We conclude that policies aimed at integrating the markets can also effectively act as adaptation measures for climate change.

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Fig. 1

Source: Antle and Capalbo (2010) (Fig. 3)

Fig. 2

Source: Crop simulation model

Fig. 3

Source: GTAP simulation

Fig. 4

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge their respective financial supports from National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFA0602604) and National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (71503243; 71873009). The authors thank Professor Erda Lin, Wei Xiong and Jie Pan’s team from China Academy of Agriculture Sciences for their contribution to providing simulation data on physical yield changes using ESM and DASSAT.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. China Center for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

    Wei Xie

  2. School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Qi Cui

  3. School of Economics and Management, North China University of Technology, Beijing, 100144, China

    Tariq Ali

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  1. Wei Xie
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  2. Qi Cui
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  3. Tariq Ali
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Correspondence to Wei Xie.

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Appendix

Appendix

(See Fig. 5, Tables 2 and 3).

Fig. 5
figure 5

Range of changes in domestic supply of barley for net importers and net exporters due to extreme weather disasters under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6. (Top and bottom of the boxes are 25th and 75th percentiles, the circle is average, and the centerline is the median of the data. Two whiskers indicate the minimum and maximum of all data—n = 17, and 139 of extreme events in RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively)

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Table 2 Sectoral aggregation scheme
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Table 3 Regions aggregation scheme
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Xie, W., Cui, Q. & Ali, T. Role of market agents in mitigating the climate change effects on food economy. Nat Hazards 99, 1215–1231 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03646-9

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