Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Risk assessment and analysis of ice disaster in Ning–Meng reach of Yellow River based on a two-phased intelligent model under grey information environment

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Ice disaster is serious in Ning–Meng reach of Yellow River in China. Due to the complexity of ice disaster, it usually presents grey uncertainty. In order to evaluate the probability of ice disaster loss caused by the adverse events and reveal the development between ice regime data and ice disaster risk under grey information environment, this paper assesses and analyzes the ice disaster risk in Ning–Meng reach of Yellow River. Firstly, the index system of ice disaster risk is established based on the formation mechanism of ice disaster and the novel features of ice regime presented in recent years. Then, the two-phased intelligent model under grey information environment is proposed. The risk degree of ice disaster is assessed with grey interval relational clustering at the first phase, and the decision rules that reflect the development between ice regime information and ice disaster risk degree are extracted with grey dominance-based rough set approach at the second phase. The last empirical analysis of ice disaster risk in the year of 1996–2015 shows that the evaluated ice disaster risk degree of different years is consistent with the practical ice regime characteristics and the extracted decision rules could do as the intuitive criterion to estimate the ice disaster risk through ice regime data.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aven T (2015) Risk assessment and risk management: review of recent advances on their foundation. Eur J Oper Res 253:1–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang J, Wang X, Li Y, Wang Y (2016) Ice regime variation impacted by reservoir operation in the Ning–Meng reach of the Yellow River. Nat Hazards 80:1015–1030

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y, Shu L, Burbey TJ (2014) An integrated risk assessment model of township-scaled land subsidence based on an evidential reasoning algorithm and fuzzy set theory. Risk Anal 34:656–669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng JL (1982) Control problems of grey systems. Syst Control Lett 1:288–294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu C, Popescu I, Wang C, Myneyy AE, Zhang F (2014) Challenges in modelling river flow and ice regime on the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River, China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:1225–1237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greco S, Matarazzo B, Slowinski R (2001) Rough sets theory for multicriteria decision analysis. Eur J Oper Res 129:1–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greco S, Matarazzo B, Slowinski R (2002) Rough approximation by dominance relations. Int J Intell Syst 17:153–171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo ZH, Chang JX, Huang Q, Cui S (2014) The influence of the channel-storage increment in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River. J Hydroelectr Eng 33:112–117 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo EL, Zhang JQ, Wang YF, Si H, Zhang F (2016) Dynamic risk assessment of waterlogging disaster for maize based on CERES-Maize model in Midwest of Jilin Province, China. Nat Hazards 83:1747–1761

    Google Scholar 

  • He Y, Gong Z (2014) China’s regional rainstorm floods disaster evaluation based on grey incidence multiple-attribute decision model. Nat Hazards 71:1125–1144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang Y, Dong W, Yang S, Ma J (2008) Long-term changes in ice phenology of the Yellow River in the past decades. J Clim 21:4879–4886

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kong G, Bai T, Chang JX, Wu CG, Liu DF (2015) Flow routing during ice control period. Water Resour 42:627–634

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li C, Chen K, Xiang X (2015) An integrated framework for effective safety management evaluation: application of an improved grey clustering measurement. Expert Syst Appl 42:5541–5553

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lu SB, Huang Q, Wu CG, Gao F (2010) Ice jams disaster in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of Yellow River and its prevention by reservoirs. J Nat Disaster 19:43–47 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo D (2014) Risk evaluation of ice-jam disasters using gray systems theory: the case of Ningxia- Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River. Nat Hazards 71:1419–1431

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo D, Li S (2016) Hybrid grey multiple attribute decision-making method based on “clutch” thought. Control Decis 31:1305–1310 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo D, Wang X (2012) The multi-attribute grey target decision method for attribute value within three-parameter interval grey number. Appl Math Model 36:1957–1963

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo D, Mao WX, Sun HF (2016) Attributes reduction of information system with three-parameter interval grey number. Comput Eng Appl 52:156–161 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Pawlak Z (1982) Rough sets. Int J Parallel Prog 11:341–356

    Google Scholar 

  • Qian Y, Liang J, Dang C (2008) Interval ordered information systems. Comput Math Appl 56:1994–2009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shao M, Gong Z, Xu X (2014) Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters in China between 2004 and 2009 based on gray fixed weight cluster analysis. Nat Hazards 71:1025–1052

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang FQ (2014) Study on ice formation cause and forecast methods in Ning–Meng reach of Yellow River. Press of China water conservancy and hydropower, Beijing (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Dang YG (2015) Dynamic multi-attribute decision-making methods with three—parameter interval grey number. Control Decis 30:1623–1629 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang T, Yang K, Guo Y (2008) Application of artificial neural networks to forecasting ice conditions of the Yellow River in the Inner Mongolia reach. J Hydrol Eng 13:811–816

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang T, Yang KL, Guo XL, Fu H (2012) Appication of adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system to ice condition forecast. J Hydraul Eng 43:112–117 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Fang F, Zhang Q, Wang JS, Yao YB, Wang W (2016) Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method. Nat Hazards 83:1–30

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu LY, He DJ, Hong W, Ji ZR, You WB, Zhao LL, Xiao SH (2014) Research advances and prospects of natural disaster risk assessment and vulnerability assessment. J Catastrophol 29:129–135 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu CG, Wei YM, Jin JL, Huang Q, Zhou YL, Liu L (2015) Comprehensive evaluation of ice disaster risk of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach in the upper Yellow River. Nat Hazards 75:179–197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie N, Xin J, Liu S (2014) China’s regional meteorological disaster loss analysis and evaluation based on grey cluster model. Nat Hazards 71:1067–1089

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yan F, Qiao DY, Qian B, Ma L, Xing XG, Zhang Y, Wang XG (2016) Improvement of CCME WQI using grey relational method. J Hydrol 543:316–323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang XB, Qi Y, Yu DJ, Yu HL, Yang JY (2015) α-Dominance relation and rough sets in interval-valued information systems. Inf Sci 294:334–347

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang FX, Xi GY, Zhang XL, Wang GQ, Huang R (2015) Simulation of channel-storage increment process in ice flood period. Adv Water Sci 26:201–211 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This paper is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71271086), Key Scientific and Technological Project of Henan Province (No. 142102310123) and Key Research Project Fund Plan of Henan Universities (No. 15A630005). The authors are grateful to this support.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China

    Dang Luo & Wenxin Mao

  2. School of Management and Economics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China

    Huifang Sun

Authors
  1. Dang Luo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wenxin Mao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Huifang Sun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wenxin Mao.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Luo, D., Mao, W. & Sun, H. Risk assessment and analysis of ice disaster in Ning–Meng reach of Yellow River based on a two-phased intelligent model under grey information environment. Nat Hazards 88, 591–610 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2883-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2883-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation