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Decomposition and scenario analysis of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry: based on LMDI method

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Abstract

The power industry is a major contributor to CO2 emissions in China and thus plays a critical role in achieving the targets of CO2 emission reduction. This study analyzes the historical trajectory and feature of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry, explores the driving factors of CO2 emission change using LMDI method, and develops two emission reduction scenarios to evaluate the reduction potential of CO2 emissions. Results show the following: (1) China’s power industry has experienced a significant but unstable increase in CO2 emissions from 343.18 Mt in 1985 to 3447.57 Mt in 2013, a growth rate of 904.60%. (2) Industrial-scale effect plays a dominant role in promoting CO2 emission growth in China’s power industry, and the corresponding contribution degree reaches 111.73%. Energy intensity effect contributes most to the decrease in CO2 emissions, with a contribution degree of −16.82%. Capital productivity effect is another important factor leading to the increase in CO2 emissions. (3) The aggregate CO2 emission reduction in China’s power industry would reach 18,031.62 Mt in the ideal scenario and 15,466.03 Mt in the current policy scenario during 2014–2030. Finally, this study provides policy implications for energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction in China’s power industry.

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Notes

  1. In 2002, a major adjustment in China’s power system was made. Five power groups and two power grid companies were formed, and the policy of “power plants separated from electric network, competing electricity price” was practiced.

  2. In 1999, the State Economic and Trade Commission issued the files entitled “The Implementation Measures on Shutting Down and Retrofitting the Small Thermal Power Units” to achieve the sustainable development of the power industry and reduce energy consumption and emissions. The specific measures, targets, and scopes were also proposed. In 2007, China’s State Council issued the file entitled “The Comments on Rapidly Shutting Down Small Thermal Power Units,” which promoted the shutdown of small thermal power units with high-energy resource consumption and serious pollution to achieve the reduction targets in energy consumption and emission during the 11th Five-Year planning period.

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Acknowledgements

The research described in this study was financially supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (No. 71273026) and Joint Development Program of Beijing Municipal Commission of Education. We appreciate the reviewer’s comments, which help to improve the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China

    Yuhuan Zhao, Hao Li, Zhonghua Zhang, Yongfeng Zhang, Song Wang & Ya Liu

  2. Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China

    Yuhuan Zhao

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  1. Yuhuan Zhao
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Correspondence to Yuhuan Zhao.

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Zhao, Y., Li, H., Zhang, Z. et al. Decomposition and scenario analysis of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry: based on LMDI method. Nat Hazards 86, 645–668 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2710-5

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