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Twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean: the role of equatorial waves

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Abstract

This study explores the background atmospheric conditions that led to the development of recent two sets of twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean. One set of twins formed in late December 2011 (“pair A”) and other in May 2013 (“pair B”). An extensive area of active convection prevailing over wide-equatorial region and low-level westerly wind over near-equatorial region is major precursors to the two cases of twins. Convection and accompanying westerlies slowly strengthen, and the two sets of twins tend to emerge within it. The atmospheric equatorial convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (CCER) wave played key role in the formation of the two twins’ events. Wave-enhanced equatorial convection and low-level westerly anomalies produced by the combination of CCKW and CCER wave are crucial for the development of “pair A” twins. CCKW prior to “pair B” twins produced convection and westerly anomalies over equatorial region. The equatorial westerlies are further modulated by CCER wave favoring twins of “pair B.” Moreover, convection reinforced by CCER wave in OLR aided occurrence of Northern Hemispheric cyclone of “pair A” and Southern Hemispheric cyclone of “pair B.” While the CCKW and CCER wave appear to be associated with the formation of the two twin cyclone cases, more thorough understanding of the mechanisms involved needs considerable attention in forthcoming research.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, for the motivation and support. The IITM is funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, New Delhi. Authors extend gratitude to Dr. Carl Schreck, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, USA, for help in extracting equatorial waves. This research is greatly benefited by extremely useful suggestions from Dr. Prasanth A. Pillai, scientist, IITM, Pune. We also appreciate helpful discussions with Dr. A. B. Parekh and Dr. S. Pokhrel, both scientist at IITM, Pune. We would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable and constructive comments, which have substantially improved the manuscript. Some of the figures are made using GrADS software. Thanks to Brian Doty of Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere, USA, for making GrADS package freely available. Equatorial wave modes are extracted and plotted using “The National Center for Atmospheric Research Command Language (version 6.1.2) [Software]” (2013). Boulder, Colorado: UCAR/NCAR/CISL/VETS. http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5. All the data sources are duly acknowledged. Acknowledgment is made of the NCEP reanalysis circulation, velocity potential and OLR data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA.

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  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune, Maharashtra, 4110 08, India

    Sujata K. Mandke & A. K. Sahai

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  1. Sujata K. Mandke
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  2. A. K. Sahai
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Correspondence to Sujata K. Mandke.

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Mandke, S.K., Sahai, A.K. Twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean: the role of equatorial waves. Nat Hazards 84, 2211–2224 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2546-z

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