Abstract
Printed electronics, as an extension to conventional electronics, has grown considerably for decades. At this moment, therefore, tracing the development of this technology up to the present will provide researchers and R&D planners with better understanding of the technology’s evolving characteristics and insights for further R&D directions. This paper carries out two bibliographic analyses to study the technology development life cycle and the technological knowledge within the area of printed electronics. First, we fit a growth curve to yearly patent registration data, thereby calculating several indicators, including the current technological maturity ratio, the number of potential future patents and the expected remaining life. Second, we identify the core and brokering technology classes within the overall technology network of printed electronics by combining patent co-classification analysis and social network analysis. As a result, we could obtain some findings from the inventional point of view; the technological development of printed electronics has entered the maturity stage, and the expected remaining life was 8.5 years as of the beginning of 2013. In addition, we identified several technology areas that have the high importance to act as both core and brokering technologies, apparatus for metal working, anti-inductive structures, and electronic circuit control systems.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arora SK, Youtie J, Carley S, Porter AL, Shapira P (2014) Measuring the development of a common scientific lexicon in nanotechnology. J Nanopart Res 16:1–11
Bengisu M, Nekhili R (2006) Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 73:835–844
Breschi S, Lissoni F, Malerba F (2003) Knowledge-relatedness in firm technological diversification. Res Policy 32:69–87
Brokmann U, Sönnichsen K, Hülsenberg D (2008) Application of micro structured photosensitive glass for the gravure printing process. Microsyst Technol 14:1635–1639
Carrillo M, González JM (2002) A new approach to modelling sigmoidal curves. Technol Forecast Soc Change 69:233–241
Chen Y-H, Chen C-Y, Lee S-C (2010) Technology forecasting of new clean energy: the example of hydrogen energy and fuel cell. Afr J Bus Manag 4:1372–1380
Chen Y-H, Chen C-Y, Lee S-C (2011) Technology forecasting and patent strategy of hydrogen energy and fuel cell technologies. Int J Hydrogen Energy 36:6957–6969
Chen H, Roco MC, Son J, Jiang S, Larson CA, Gao Q (2013) Global nanotechnology development from 1991 to 2012: patents, scientific publications, and effect of NSF funding. J Nanopart Res 15:1–21
Cheng A-C, Chen C-Y (2008) The technology forecasting of new materials: The example of nanosized ceramic powders. Rom J Economic Forecast 5:88–110
Choi S, Kim H, Yoon J, Kim K, Lee JY (2013) An SAO-based text-mining approach for technology roadmapping using patent information. R&d Manag 43:52–74
Daim TU, Rueda G, Martin H, Gerdsri P (2006) Forecasting emerging technologies: use of bibliometrics and patent analysis. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 73:981–1012
Dangalchev C (2006) Residual closeness in networks. Physica A 365:556–564
Freeman LC, Borgatti SP, White DR (1991) Centrality in valued graphs: a measure of betweenness based on network flow. Soc Netw 13:141–154
Geum Y, Jeon J, Seol H (2013) Identifying technological opportunities using the novelty detection technique: a case of laser technology in semiconductor manufacturing. Technol Anal Strateg Manag 25:1–22
Haupt R, Kloyer M, Lange M (2007) Patent indicators for the technology life cycle development. Res Policy 36:387–398
Jung M et al (2010) All-printed and roll-to-roll-printable 13.56-MHz-operated 1-bit RF tag on plastic foils. Electron Dev IEEE Trans 57:571–580
Kang H, Lee C, Shin K (2010) A novel cross directional register modeling and feed forward control in multi-layer roll-to-roll printing. J Process Control 20:643–652
Kim E, Cho Y, Kim W (2014) Dynamic patterns of technological convergence in printed electronics technologies: patent citation. Netw Scientometr 98:975–998
Krebs FC (2009) Polymer solar cell modules prepared using roll-to-roll methods: knife-over-edge coating, slot-die coating and screen printing. Sol Energy Mater Sol Cells 93:465–475
Kunnari E, Valkama J, Keskinen M, Mansikkamäki P (2009) Environmental evaluation of new technology: printed electronics case study. J Clean Prod 17:791–799
Lee S, Kang S, Park Y, Park Y (2007) Technology roadmapping for R&D planning: the case of the Korean parts and materials industry. Technovation 27:433–445
Lee H, Kim C, Cho H, Park Y (2009a) An ANP-based technology network for identification of core technologies: a case of telecommunication technologies. Expert Syst Appl 36:894–908
Lee S, Yoon B, Lee C, Park J (2009b) Business planning based on technological capabilities: patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 76:769–786
Lee C, Kang H, Kim C, Shin K (2010) A novel method to guarantee the specified thickness and surface roughness of the roll-to-roll printed patterns using the tension of a moving substrate. Microelectromech Syst J 19:1243–1253
Lee JH et al (2013) Exposure assessment of workers in printed electronics workplace. Inhal Toxicol 25:426–434
Leydesdorff L (2007) Betweenness centrality as an indicator of the interdisciplinary of scientific journals. J Am Soc Inform Sci Technol 58:1303–1319
Lim H, Park Y (2010) Identification of technological knowledge intermediaries. Scientometrics 84:543–561
Linstone HA (2002) Corporate planning, forecasting, and the long wave. Futures 34:317–336
Liu S-J, Shyu J (1997) Strategic planning for technology development with patent analysis. Int J Technol Manag 13:661–680
Liu C-Y, Wang J-C (2010) Forecasting the development of the biped robot walking technique in Japan through S-curve model analysis. Scientometrics 82:21–36
Mann D (1999) Using S-curves and trends of evolution in R&D strategy planning TRIZ Journal, July
Mann D (2002) Hands-on systematic innovation. Creax press, Belgium
Martino JP (2003) A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 70:719–733
Nguyen HAD, Lee J, Kim CH, Shin K-H, Lee D (2013) An approach for controlling printed line-width in high resolution roll-to-roll gravure printing. J Micromech Microeng 23:095010
Parashkov R, Becker E, Riedl T, Johannes H–H, Kowalsky W (2005) Large area electronics using printing methods. Proc IEEE 93:1321–1329
Park H, Yoon J (2014) Assessing coreness and intermediarity of technology sectors using patent co-classification analysis: the case of Korean national R&D. Scientometrics 98:853–890
Perelaer J et al (2010) Printed electronics: the challenges involved in printing devices, interconnects, and contacts based on inorganic materials. J Mater Chem 20:8446–8453
Ryu J, Byeon SC (2011) Technology level evaluation methodology based on the technology growth curve. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 78:1049–1059
Sabidussi G (1966) The centrality index of a graph. Psychometrika 31:581–603
Shih M-J, Liu D-R, Hsu M-L (2010) Discovering competitive intelligence by mining changes in patent trends. Expert Syst Appl 37:2882–2890
Utterback JM, Abernathy WJ (1975) A dynamic model of process and product innovation. Omega 3:639–656
Walk SR (2012) Quantitative technology forecasting techniques technological change ISBN:978-953
Wang G, Guan J (2011) Measuring science–technology interactions using patent citations and author-inventor links: an exploration analysis from Chinese nanotechnology. J Nanopart Res 13:6245–6262
Wong C-Y, Goh K-L (2010) Growth behavior of publications and patents: a comparative study on selected Asian economies. J Informetr 4:460–474
Yoon B (2008) On the development of a technology intelligence tool for identifying technology opportunity. Expert Syst Appl 35:124–135
Yoon J, Kim K (2011) Identifying rapidly evolving technological trends for R&D planning using SAO-based semantic patent networks. Scientometrics 88:213–228
Yoon J, Kim K (2012) Detecting signals of new technological opportunities using semantic patent analysis and outlier detection. Scientometrics 90:445–461
Yoon B, Park Y (2005) A systematic approach for identifying technology opportunities: keyword-based morphology analysis. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 72:145–160
Yoon J, Choi S, Kim K (2011) Invention property-function network analysis of patents: a case of silicon-based thin film solar cells. Scientometrics 86:687–703
Young P (1993) Technological growth curves: a competition of forecasting models. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 44:375–389
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (No.2012R1A1A1039303).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yoon, J., Park, Y., Kim, M. et al. Tracing evolving trends in printed electronics using patent information. J Nanopart Res 16, 2471 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11051-014-2471-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11051-014-2471-6