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Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

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Abstract

Context

Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.

Objectives

We used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.

Methods

We assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.

Results

Interacting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.

Conclusions

Understanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

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Acknowledgments

This research was funded in part by the Joint Fire Science Program under projects JFSP 09-3-01-17 and JFSP-09-1002-9. The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of the large number of skilled researchers, ecologists, and biological technicians who have participated in many phases of this research. Any use of trade names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK, 99508, USA

    Rachel A. Loehman

  2. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, 5775 Highway 10 West, Missoula, MT, 59808, USA

    Robert E. Keane & Lisa M. Holsinger

  3. State Key Laboratory of Forest and Soil Ecology, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 72 Wenhua Road, Shenyang, 110164, People’s Republic of China

    Zhiwei Wu

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  1. Rachel A. Loehman
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  2. Robert E. Keane
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  3. Lisa M. Holsinger
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  4. Zhiwei Wu
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Correspondence to Rachel A. Loehman.

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Loehman, R.A., Keane, R.E., Holsinger, L.M. et al. Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates. Landscape Ecol 32, 1447–1459 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0414-6

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