Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Seismicity and seismic hazard in the continental margin of southeastern Brazil

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Journal of Seismology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Although seismic activity in Brazil is low to moderate, some earthquakes with damage potential occurred in the past. Engineering structures located along the coast and those installed in deep waters need to comply with safety requirements. In addition, there is a need to address the public interest regarding the effects of seismically-induced landslides. Therefore, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was carried out for the offshore south/southeast regions of Brazil, in order to estimate potential levels of ground motion. A historical and recent instrumental seismicity catalog for this region has been compiled. A stochastic attenuation relation with different seismic source models and recurrence parameters was used in a hazard analysis with the CRISIS 2012 software. To capture the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in the hazard calculations, a logic tree approach was adopted, considering different seismic zone models, seismic activity parameters, and scaling factors in the Ground Motion Prediction Equation. It was verified that the Peak Ground Accelerations are mostly less than 2.0% g in the continental portion of the region (for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years). At a particular point of interest located offshore in the continental slope of the study area, the seismic hazard is also low, with the maximum acceleration for the probability of exceedance of 10% and 2% in 50 years reaching mean values of 3.2% and 19.1% g, respectively, for very hard rock conditions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abrahamson NA (2000) State of the practice of seismic hazard evaluation. In: Paper presented at the International Society for Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering Symposium, Melbourne, Australia, November 19–24

  • Abrahamson NA, Bommer JJ (2005) Probability and uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis. Earthquake Spectra 21(2):603–607. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1899158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Al Atik L, Abrahamson N, Bommer JJ, Scherbaum F, Cotton F, Kuehn N (2010) The variability of ground-motion prediction models and its components. Seismol Res Lett 81(5):794–801. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.81.5.794

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Almeida MCF (1997) Seismic analysis in Southeast Brazil: application to pipelines of the oil industry. Thesis, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. In Portuguese

  • Almeida AAD, Assumpção M, Bommer JJ, Drouet S, Riccomini C, Prates CLM (2019) Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a nuclear power plant site in southeast Brazil. J Seismol 23:1–23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-018-9755-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson JG (1997) Benefits of scenario ground motion maps. Eng Geol 48(1–2):43–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(97)81913-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Assumpção M (1983) A regional magnitude scale for Brazil. Bull Seismol Soc Am 73(1):237–246

    Google Scholar 

  • Assumpção M (1998a) Seismicity and stresses in the Brazilian passive margin. Bull Seismol Soc Am 88(1):160–169

    Google Scholar 

  • Assumpção M (1998b) Focal mechanisms of small earthquakes in the south Brazilian shield: a test of stress models of the South American plate. Geophys J Int 133(2):490–498. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.1998.00532.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Assumpção M, Dias Neto, CM, Ortega R, França H (1979) The São Paulo earthquake of 1922. In: Paper presented at the 2nd Geology Regional Symposium, Rio Claro, São Paulo, November 15-18. In Portuguese

  • Assumpção M, Dourado JC, Ribotta LC, Mohriak WU, Dias FL, Barbosa JR (2011) The São Vicente earthquake of 2008 April and seismicity in the continental shelf off SE Brazil: further evidence for flexural stresses. Geophys J Int 187(3):1076–1088. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05198.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Assumpção M, Ferreira J, Barros L, Bezerra H, França GS, Barbosa JR, Menezes E, Ribotta LC, Pirchiner M, Nascimento A, Dourado JC (2014) Intraplate seismicity in Brazil. In: Talwani P (ed) Intraplate earthquakes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 50–71. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139628921.004

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Assumpção M, Pirchiner M, Dourado JC, Barros LV (2016) Earthquakes in Brazil: preparing for rare events. Bull Braz Soc Geophys 96:25–29 In Portuguese

    Google Scholar 

  • Atkinson GM, Bommer JJ, Abrahamson NA (2014) Alternative approaches to modeling epistemic uncertainty in ground motions in probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis. Seismol Res Lett 85(6):1141–1144. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220140120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bazzurro P, Cornell CA (1999) Disaggregation of seismic hazard. Bull Seismol Soc Am 89(2):501–520

    Google Scholar 

  • Berrocal J, Assumpção M, Antezana R, Dias Neto CM, Ortega R, França H, Veloso JAV (1984) Seismicity of Brazil. Astronomical and Geophysical Institute of the University of São Paulo and Nuclear Energy National Committee, São Paulo In Portuguese

    Google Scholar 

  • Berrocal J, Fernandes C, Bueno A, Seixas N, Bassini A (1993) Seismic activity in Monsuaba (state of Rio de Janeiro), Brazil, between 1988 December and 1989 February. Geophysical J Int 113(1):73–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1993.tb02529.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bianchi MB, Assumpção M, Rocha MP, Carvalho JM, Azevedo PA, Fontes SL, Dias FL, Ferreira JM, Nascimento AF, Ferreira MV, Costa ISL (2018) The Brazilian seismographic network (RSBR): improving seismic monitoring in Brazil. Seismol Res Lett 89(2A):452–457. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bommer JJ, Scherbaum F (2008) The use and misuse of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Earthquake Spectra 24(4):997–1009. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2977755

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bommer JJ, Scherbaum F, Bungum H, Cotton F, Sabetta F, Abrahamson NA (2005) On the use of logic trees for ground-motion prediction equations in seismic-hazard analysis. Bull Seismol Soc Am 95(2):377–389. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120040073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ciardelli C, Assumpção M (2019) Rupture lengths of intraplate earthquakes in Brazil determined by relative location of aftershocks: evidence for depth dependence of stress drops. J S Am Earth Sci 89:246–258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2018.11.017

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cobbold PR, Meisling KE, Mount VS (2001) Reactivation of an obliquely rifted margin, Campos and Santos basins, southeastern Brazil. Am Assoc Pet Geol Bull 85(11):1925–1944

    Google Scholar 

  • Dourado JC, Assumpção M, Nery M (2019) Seismic hazard evaluation for a site near Cubatão, Serra Do Mar, SE Brazil: comparison with the preliminary PSHA map for Brazil. In: Paper presented at the 3rd Brazilian Seismology Symposium, Vinhedo, São Paulo, Brazil, April 15-17. Abstract

  • Fine IV, Rabinovich AB, Bornhold BD, Thomson RE, Kulikov EA (2005) The Grand Banks landslide-generated tsunami of November 18, 1929: preliminary analysis and numerical modeling. Mar Geol 215(1–2):45–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2004.11.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giardini D (1999) The global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) – 1992/1999. Ann Geophys 42(6):957–974. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3780

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giardini D, Grünthal G, Shedlock KM, Zhang P (1999) The GSHAP global seismic hazard map. Ann Geophys-Italy 42(6):1225–1230. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3784

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanks TC, Kanamori H (1979) A moment magnitude scale. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 84(B5):2348–2350. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB084iB05p02348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayashi T, Yashiro H (2019) Proposal of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for disaster prevention of the local area. In: Silvestri F, Moraci N (eds) Earthquake geotechnical engineering for protection and development of environment and constructions. Associazione Geotecnica Italiana, Rome, pp 2827–2834

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnston AC (1989) The seismicity of ‘stable continental interiors’. In: Gregersen S, Basham PW (eds) Earthquakes at North-Atlantic passive margins: neotectonics and postglacial rebound. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 299–327

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Joyner WB, Boore DM (1981) Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity from strong-motion records including records from the 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquake. Bull Seismol Soc Am 71(6):2011–2038

    Google Scholar 

  • Kramer SL (1996) Geotechnical earthquake engineering. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey

    Google Scholar 

  • Krinitzsky EL (2002) How to obtain earthquake ground motions for engineering design. Eng Geol 65(1):1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(01)00098-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lima Neto FF, Beneduzi C (1998). Using leakoff tests and acoustic logging to estimate in-situ stresses at deep waters – Campos Basin. In: Paper presented at The American Association of Petroleum Geologists International Conference and Exhibition, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, November 8–11

  • McGuire RK (2004) Seismic hazard and risk analysis. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland

    Google Scholar 

  • Neves FA, Assumpção M, Dourado JC, Le Diagon F, Ortolan A (2018) Improved epicentral relocation in the offshore Campos Basin, SE Brazil, with the RSTT 3D model. J S Am Earth Sci 85:121–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2018.05.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ordaz M, Martinelli F, Meletti C, D’Amico V (2013) CRISIS2012: an updated tool to compute seismic hazard. In: Paper presented at the Spring Meeting 2013 of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, California, December 9–13

  • Petersen M, Harmsen S, Haller K, Mueller C, Luco N, Hayes G, Dewey J, Rukstales K (2010) Preliminary seismic hazard model for South America. In: Huaco D (ed) La Sismología en Sudamérica y los mecanismos de prevención y mitigación del peligro sísmico. Lima, Peru

    Google Scholar 

  • Petersen MD, Harmsen SC, Jaiswal KS, Rukstales KS, Luco N, Haller KM, Mueller CS, Shumway AM (2018) Seismic hazard, risk and design for South America. Bull Seismol Soc Am 108(2):781–800. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pirchiner M, Collaço B, Calhau J, Assumpção M, Dourado JC (2011) The Brazilian Seismographic Integrated Systems (BRASIS): infrastructure and data management. Ann Geophys 54(1):17–22. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-4865

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reasenberg P (1985) Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969-1982. J Geophys Res 90(B7):5479–5495. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB090iB07p05479

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reiter L (1990) Earthquake hazard analysis: issues and insights. Columbia University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Riccomini C, Assumpção MS (1999) Quaternary tectonics in Brazil. Episodes 22(3):221–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stepp JC (1972) Analysis of completeness of the earthquake sample in the Puget Sound area and its effects on statistical estimates of earthquake hazard. In: Paper presented at the international conference on microzonation for safer construction research and application, University of Seattle, WA, USA, October 30-November 3

  • Thenhaus PC, Campbell KW (2003) Seismic hazard analysis. In: Scawthorn C, Chen W-F (eds) Earthquake engineering handbook, 1st edn. CRC Press, Boca Raton chapter 8

    Google Scholar 

  • Toro GR (2002) Modification of the Toro et al. (1997) attenuation equations for large magnitudes and short distances. Risk Engineering, Inc.

  • Toro GR, Abrahamson NA, Schneider JF (1997) Model of strong ground motions from earthquakes in central and eastern North America: best estimates and uncertainties. Seismol Res Lett 68(1):41–57. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.68.1.41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weichert DH (1980) Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 70(4):1337–1346

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Stéphane Drouet (Geoter/Fugro Group) for providing valuable guidelines, discussions, and useful comments during the development of the study. This work was a collaborative and cooperative effort combining the seismic hazard experience available at the National Observatory (ON) and IAG/USP, and involved a transparent exchange of knowledge, information, and specialized judgment criteria. The authors would also like to thank the Associate Editor and an anonymous reviewer for the valuable suggestions that helped them to improve the work.

Funding

Marcelo Assumpção and Márcio Almeida received grants from the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) (grant numbers 30.1284/2017-2 and 30.3836/2016-4, respectively. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Petrobras Research and Development Center, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Ricardo Garske Borges

  2. Leopoldo Américo Miguez de Mello Research and Development Center (Petrobras/CENPES), Cidade Universitária, 950 Horácio Macedo Ave., Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-915, Brazil

    Ricardo Garske Borges

  3. Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

    Marcelo Sousa de Assumpção

  4. Polytechnic School of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Maria Cascão Ferreira de Almeida

  5. COPPE, Graduate School of Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Márcio de Souza Soares de Almeida

Authors
  1. Ricardo Garske Borges
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Marcelo Sousa de Assumpção
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Maria Cascão Ferreira de Almeida
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Márcio de Souza Soares de Almeida
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ricardo Garske Borges.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 1619 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Borges, R.G., de Assumpção, M.S., de Almeida, M.C.F. et al. Seismicity and seismic hazard in the continental margin of southeastern Brazil. J Seismol 24, 1205–1224 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-020-09941-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-020-09941-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation