Abstract
1. The African species Cloeon smaeleni is one of the three Ephemeroptera species recorded as exotic and was introduced in Brazilian port areas. The records of this exotic species do not have a pattern, making it challenging to propose control measures and impact investigations. 2. We utilized Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to address: (i) What is the range of the distribution in current condition in South America? (ii) What are the susceptible coastal areas to new introductions? (iii) Are the records geographically connected along a continuum of suitability? (iv) How will climate change impact the species’ distribution in South America? 3. Our models predicted a large and continuous suitable area encompassing critical biodiversity hotspots and threatened ecoregions for both current predictions and in the year 2060. 4. Under future climate scenarios, there is a slight shift in C. smaeleni’s distribution with an overall reduction of suitable areas. However, large suitable areas still suggest this species may be a long-term element of South American diversity. 5. Long-term interactions with native species, especially in light of climate change, are of great concern, particularly for Callibaetis, as C. smaeleni may outcompete native populations and will maintain large suitable areas, while suitability for native species is expected to contract. Thus, interactions between C. smaeleni and native species should be investigated in future research to elucidate the implications for insect conservation in the potential suitability areas of the exotic species.
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Acknowledgements
We extend our gratitude to UNIR (Federal University of Rondônia) for providing the computers in the Multi-User Space, which proved essential for the analyses conducted in this study and Janderson B.R. Alencar which provided essential computational time. We are grateful to the Alumina do Norte do Brasil Company for supporting the research project “Evaluation of the aquatic biota and riparian vegetation of the hydrographic system that influences the Murucupi basin and vicinity of HYDRO ALUNORTE”, through funding and logistical support, as well as scholarships to RP and EJC. We express our gratitude to the Rondônia Foundation for the Support of Scientific and Technological Actions and Research (FAPERO), for the financial support granted to MNC, ALA, IMF and PVC (0012.067617/2022-90). We also thank the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for granting a doctoral and postdoctoral stipend to MNC, postdoctoral ALA (167873/2022-9) and a research productivity fellowship to LJ (304710/2019-9). We also thank the Hydro Alunorte for granting a postdoctoral stipend to APJ and EJC. We are very grateful to Driane Ferreira, Joás da Silva Brito, Jorge Luis Pereira, Nayara Louback, Luiz Sousa and Rafael Bastos for their assistance during the field expeditions. We thank Editor James Pryke and two anonymous reviewers who contributed substantially to improving the manuscript.
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Cardoso, M.N., Cruz, P.V., Shimano, Y. et al. It is here to stay. The exotic species Cloeon smaeleni Lestage, 1924 (Ephemeroptera) will be a long-term element of south American diversity. J Insect Conserv (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-024-00551-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-024-00551-w