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Endangered Quino checkerspot butterfly and climate change: Short-term success but long-term vulnerability?

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Abstract

The butterfly Euphydryas editha is known to be vulnerable to climate events that exacerbate natural phenological asynchrony between insect and hosts. In prior work, populations of E. editha have been more persistent at high latitudes and high elevations than in the south and at low elevations, consistent with response to observed warming climate. However, poleward range shifts by the endangered subspecies E. e. quino are blocked by urbanization and range shifts to higher elevation may require host shifts. Prior studies were inconclusive as to whether elevational and host shifts were already occurring. Here, we re-evaluate this scenario with new evidence from molecular genetics, host-choice behaviour and field recording of butterfly distribution. We found a statistically significant upward shift in population distribution since 2009. Insects in the expanding region were neither genomic outliers within Quino nor specifically adapted to their principal local host genus, Collinsia. These diverse data collectively support the hypothesis that an elevational range expansion is already in progress, accompanied and facilitated by a shift of principal host from Plantago to Collinsia. Quino appears resilient to warming climate. However, projections indicate that most or all of Quino’s current range in the USA, including the new high elevation expansion, will become uninhabitable. Our most frequent projected future range (circa 2050) is c. 400 km northward from current populations, hence conservation of Quino may eventually require assisted colonization. For now, Critical Habitat (sensu Endangered Species Act) has been designated at sites around the new upper elevational limit that were not known to be occupied. Designating Critical Habitat outside the historic range is a pioneering response to climate change. This politically challenging, non-traditional, climate change-oriented conservation effort exemplifies flexible thinking needed for species vulnerable to climate change.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the United States Fish and Wildlife Service for compiling Quino records. Modeling was performed at Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC). We are very grateful to John Fonner at TACC for training MM and for his cheerful help throughout. We also give many thanks to Seth McGinnis at NCAR for providing us with downscaled climate projection data and to Emilie Luciani for converting FWS GIS files for making lovely maps. We thank Dr. Richard Lowry for developing and maintaining the VassarStats website <http://vassarstats.net> that we used to perform the statistics presented in this paper. We also thank the PRISM Climate Group (Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu) and the WorldClim Global Climate Data group (http://www.worldclim.org) for making their high resolution interpolated climate data freely available for research purposes. Personal observations by Paul Opler, Gordon Pratt, John Emmel and Ken Osborne were invaluable. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their very helpful suggestions that have substantially improved the manuscript. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Support came from the San Diego Foundation, the Okinawa Institute for Science and Technology (Japan) and from NSF Earth Systems Models Grant, Award Number 1049208.

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  1. Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK

    Camille Parmesan

  2. Department of Geology and Environmental Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712, USA

    Camille Parmesan

  3. Carlsbad Fish and Wildlife Office, 2177 Salk Avenue, Suite 250, Carlsbad, CA, 92008, USA

    Alison Williams-Anderson

  4. Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712, USA

    Matthew Moskwik

  5. Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology, Onna-son, Okinawa, 904-0495, Japan

    Alexander S. Mikheyev

  6. School of Biological Sciences, Plymouth University, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK

    Michael C. Singer

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Correspondence to Camille Parmesan.

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Parmesan, C., Williams-Anderson, A., Moskwik, M. et al. Endangered Quino checkerspot butterfly and climate change: Short-term success but long-term vulnerability?. J Insect Conserv 19, 185–204 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-014-9743-4

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