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Contrasting controls on phytoplankton dynamics in two large, pre-alpine lakes imply differential responses to climate change

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Abstract

The effects of climate change on lake ecosystems are often complex. We examined how phytoplankton in two neighbouring, pre-alpine, large oligotrophic lakes with similar catchments and land uses are likely to respond to climate change. We hypothesised that (i) while their climates and landscape filters were relatively similar, differences in in-lake biological, physical and chemical filters would influence the phytoplankton responses to climate and (ii) direct effects of warming on phytoplankton dynamics and productivity would be relatively minor compared to indirect effects, especially those influencing the lakes’ mixing regimes. We combined (i) dynamic modelling of the physical forcing of the lakes under climate change, (ii) multi-year field sampling of relevant biological, physical and chemical variables and (iii) bioassay experiments, to test our hypotheses. Water temperatures have warmed over recent decades in one lake, but not in the other. The warming lake showed evidence of incomplete mixing and phytoplankton layering in winter 2009, while the other lake did not. Such changes influenced the phytoplankton phenology, and incomplete winter mixing is common in similar deep, temperate lakes. Inhibited winter mixing and related indirect effects of climate warming appear to be key early drivers of climate change effects on the phytoplankton of deep, temperate lakes.

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Acknowledgments

We thank all who assisted with field and lab work, especially Nicky McHugh. We also appreciate the logistical assistance of the Otago Regional Council (ORC) and Fish and Game Otago; we thank the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA Ltd) and the ORC for providing climate and lake monitoring data, respectively. We are grateful to two reviewers whose suggestions have been very helpful in improving our paper. The research was funded by the Department of Zoology, University of Otago, a University of Otago Doctoral Scholarship (to TKB), the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (to MS and CWB).

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  1. Department of Zoology, University of Otago, P. O. Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand

    Tina K. Bayer, Marc Schallenberg & Carolyn W. Burns

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  1. Tina K. Bayer
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Correspondence to Carolyn W. Burns.

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Bayer, T.K., Schallenberg, M. & Burns, C.W. Contrasting controls on phytoplankton dynamics in two large, pre-alpine lakes imply differential responses to climate change. Hydrobiologia 771, 131–150 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-015-2625-2

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