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Consumption patterns, integrated food security phase classification, and the multifaceted nature of food insecurity in Sudan

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The ongoing conflict and economic deterioration have led to acute food insecurity for a significant proportion of the Sudanese population, as the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) shows. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of food insecurity in Sudan, focusing on consumption patterns and their impacts, using the IPC assessment framework. It is estimated that a significant number of people are currently in an emergency, while another large proportion is categorized under less severe but still extreme levels of hunger. In this study, we examine the multifaceted nature of food insecurity in Sudan, considering its historical, political, economic, and social dimensions. Consumption patterns and trends were analyzed, reflecting cultural influences, changes in diet, and demographic shifts. The central research question is to understand the key factors contributing to food insecurity in Sudan. This study fills a gap in the literature by using logistic regression and random forest analysis to assess food security, providing a unique perspective on this issue. Random forest outperforms logistic regression in terms of area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, and recall. The model showed strong predictive abilities and confirmed that the independent variables analyzed significantly affect food security status. The chi-square test (94.85, p < 0.015, df = 20) confirmed the statistical significance of several factors, including gender, age, education, remittances, unemployment, inflation, assets, lack of money, and illness, as important determinants. In addition, IPC projections for Sudan suggest that 15 million people will face acute food insecurity at crisis level (IPC Phase 3) or worse between October 2023 and February 2024. These findings emphasize the urgent need for both short-term humanitarian assistance and long-term strategies to address the worsening food security crisis in Sudan.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the study participants for their time and cooperation. We also gratefully acknowledge the support of Northeast Forestry University.

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  1. Northeast Forestry University College of Economics and Management, Harbin, 150040, China

    Ahmed A. A. Fadol, Guanggji Tong & Ali Raza

  2. College of Wildlife Resource, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, 150040, China

    Wlaa M. A. Mohamed

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  1. Ahmed A. A. Fadol
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Correspondence to Guanggji Tong.

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Fadol, A.A.A., Tong, G., Raza, A. et al. Consumption patterns, integrated food security phase classification, and the multifaceted nature of food insecurity in Sudan. GeoJournal 89, 99 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-024-11097-4

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