Abstract
This study aims at predicting the urban growth of Djelfa, which is the largest Algerian semi-arid city, and assessing its impact on Land Use / Land Cover (LULC). Three satellite datasets (2000, 2010, and 2020) were classified using Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC). We employed the LULC maps of 2000 and 2010 and integrated four urban growth factors to predict the urban growth of 2020 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) based on Logistic Regression Model (LRM). The predicted urban growth was compared with the observed urban class of 2020 to validate the model. Finally, we predicted future urban growth of 2030, 2040, and 2050. In effect, the urban growth of Djelfa is rapid. Its annual rate was 3.05% from 2000 till 2020 and will be 1.85% between 2020 and 2050. This has caused the loss of 11.88 km2, 2.01 km2, and 1.76 km2 of the steppe, the forest, and the agricultural land respectively, between 2000 and 2020. According to LCM, the steppe, the forest, and the agricultural land will lose 28.33 km2, 32.54 km2, and 10.84 km2 sequentially, between 2020 and 2050.
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Benkhelif, A., Setti, M., Sehl, B. et al. Predicting urban growth and its impact on fragile environment using Land Change Modeler (LCM): a case study of Djelfa City, Algeria. GeoJournal 89, 72 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-024-11078-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-024-11078-7