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Regional Hazard Degree Evaluation and Prediction for Disaster Induced by Discharged Tailings Flow from Dam Failure

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Abstract

Tailings impoundments are the important structures for the normal mine production, which are also the potential major hazard sources of mine safety. On the basis of the previous tailings dam break model experiment and numerical simulation results, the important characteristic parameters were selected to develop a hazard degree evaluation index system for the disasters induced by the discharged tailings flow from dam failure. The evaluation model was established further by using the uncertainty measurement theory. The results show that the hazard degrees of three characteristic regions (village locations) in the downstream of tailings impoundment were evaluated; it was determined that, the regional safety level of village I was “dangerous”, while those for villages II and III were “relatively safe”. Moreover, the evolution process of discharged tailings flow was divided into three characteristic stages on the whole, and a greater sand burst amount was associated with a greater risk to the downstream of the tailings impoundment. The results were highly consistent with the results of the laboratory dam break model experiments and numerical simulations.

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Acknowledgment

The authors would like to acknowledge the colleagues from the State Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Disaster Dynamics and Control for their perspectives and suggestions related to data collection and statistical analysis.

Funding

This work is supported by the Program for the Open issue with “the key laboratory of mine geological hazards mechanism and control” and “Department of Natural Resources of Shaanxi Province” (Grant No. KF2018-09); the National key research and development plan (Grant No. 2017YFC0804600); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41602307; 51904040; U1802243); the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant Nos. 2020CDJQY-A045; 2020CDJ-LHZZ-003); the General Program of Chongqing Natural Science Foundation Project (Grant No. cstc2020jcyj-msxmX0747); and the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. Z018017).

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Guangjin Wang and Sen Tian designed the study, participated in data collection and analysis, carried out the statistical analyses and drafted the manuscript. Jie Chen participated in data collection and statistical analysis. Bin Hu and Xiangyun Kong participated in statistical analyses, and helped to interpret the data and draft the manuscript. All authors gave final approval for publication.

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Correspondence to Sen Tian or Bin Hu.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Wang, G., Tian, S., Hu, B. et al. Regional Hazard Degree Evaluation and Prediction for Disaster Induced by Discharged Tailings Flow from Dam Failure. Geotech Geol Eng 39, 2051–2063 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-020-01606-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-020-01606-w

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