Abstract
During April 25, 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake (Mw 7.8), soil liquefaction was observed at several locations in Kathmandu valley. In this study, deterministic and probabilistic evaluation of liquefaction potential was performed for a liquefied site in Bungamati, Lalitpur, Nepal. Two boreholes of depth 20 m each were drilled and standard penetration test was conducted in both boreholes. The factor of safety against liquefaction was calculated using deterministic methods. In the probabilistic study, the probability of liquefaction was calculated using first order second moment (FOSM) method. The FOSM method considers uncertainty in input parameters of the model and output is represented in terms of mean value and standard deviation of the safety factor. Reliability index and the probability of failure were calculated and correlation between factor of safety and probability of failure was obtained. Based on anticipated variability in soil and seismic parameters, factor of safety required for specified risk level is presented.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Boulanger RW, Idriss IM (2006) Liquefaction susceptibility criteria for silts and clays. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 132(11):1413–1426
Boulanger RW, Idriss IM (2014) CPT and SPT-based liquefaction triggering procedures. Rep UCD/CGM-14/01. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis
Chen CJ, Juang CH (2000) Calibration of SPT- and CPT-based liquefaction evaluation methods. In: Innovations and applications in geotechnical site characterization, pp 49–64
Christian JT, Baecher GB (2016) Sources of uncertainty in liquefaction triggering procedures. Georisk Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 10(4):242–250
Duncan JM (2000) Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 126(4):307–316
Gautam D, de Magistris FS, Fabbrocino G (2017) Soil liquefaction in Kathmandu valley due to 25 April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 97:37–47
Guettaya I, El Ouni MR, Moss RES (2013) Verifying liquefaction remediation beneath an earth dam using SPT and CPT based methods. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 53:130–144
Hough S, Martin SS, Gahalaut V, Joshi A, Landès M, Bossu R (2016) A comparison of observed and predicted ground motions from the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. Nat Hazards 84:1661–1684. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2505-8
Hwang JH, Yang CW, Juang DS (2004) A practical reliability-based method for assessing soil liquefaction potential. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 24(9–10):761–770
Idriss IM, Boulanger RW (2008) Soil liquefaction during earthquakes. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, p 243
Idriss IM, Boulanger RW (2010) SPT-based liquefaction triggering procedures. Rep UCD/CGM-10/02. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis
Iwasaki T, Tokida K, Tatsuoka F, Watanabe S, Yasuda S, Sato H (1982) Microzonation for soil liquefaction potential using simplified methods. In: Proceedings of 3rd international conference on microzonation, vol 3. Seattle, pp 1319–1330
Jha SK, Suzuki K (2009a) Reliability analysis of soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test. Comput Geotech 36:589–596
Jha SK, Suzuki K (2009b) Liquefaction potential index considering parameter uncertainties. Eng Geol 107(1):55–60
Juang CH, Fang SY, Khor EH (2006) First-order reliability method for probabilistic liquefaction triggering analysis using CPT. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 132(3):337–350
Li DK, Juang CH, Andrus RD (2006) Liquefaction potential index: a critical assessment using probability concept. J GeoEng 1(1):11–24
Manandhar S, Hino T, Soralump S, Francis M (2016) Damages and causative factors of 2015 strong Nepal earthquake and directional movements of infrastructures in the Kathmandu basin and along the Araniko Highway. Lowland Technol Int 18(2):141–164
Rahman MZ, Siddiqua S, Kamal ASMM (2015) Liquefaction hazard mapping by liquefaction potential index for Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Eng Geol 188:137–147
Rana BSJB, Lall K (2013) The great earthquake in Nepal (1934 A.D.), 1st English edition. Ratna Pustak Bhandar, Kathmandu, ISBN 9789937330152
Seed HB, Idriss IM (1971) Simplified procedure for evaluating soil liquefaction potential. J Soil Mech Found Div ASCE 97(9):1249–1273
Sharma K, Deng L (2019) Reconnaissance report on geotechnical engineering aspect of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. J Earthq Eng 23:512–537
Sharma K, Deng L, Khadka D (2017) Reconnaissance of liquefaction case studies in 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake and assessment of liquefaction susceptibility. Int J Geotech Eng 13:326–338. https://doi.org/10.1080/19386362.2017.1350338
Shrestha N, Jha SK (2016) Liquefaction susceptibility analysis based on SPT and microtremor. In: Challenges and innovations in geotechnics, pp 183–186
Takai N, Shigefuji M, Rajaure S, Bijukchhen S, Ichiyanagi M, Dhital MR, Sasatani T (2016) Strong ground motion in the Kathmandu valley during the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. Earth Planet 68(10):1–8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0383-7
Wood RL, Gillins DT, Mohammadi ME, Javadnejad F, Tahami H, Gillins MN, Liao Y (2017) 2015 Gorkha post-earthquake reconnaissance of a historic village with micro unmanned aerial systems. In: Proceedings of 16th world conference on earthquake, 16WCEE
Youd TL, Idriss IM, Andrus RD, Arango I, Castro G, Christian JT, Dobry R, Finn WDL Jr, Harder LF, Hynes ME, Ishihara K, Koester JP, Liao SSC, Marcuson-III WF, Martin GR, Mitchell JK, Moriwaki Y, Power MS, Robertson PK, Seed RB, Stokoe-II KH (2001) Liquefaction resistance of soils: summary report from the 1996 NCEER and 1998 NCEER/NSF workshops on evaluation of liquefaction resistance of soils. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 127:817–833
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jha, S.K., Karki, B. & Bhattarai, A. Deterministic and Probabilistic Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential: A Case Study from 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) Earthquake. Geotech Geol Eng 38, 4369–4384 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-020-01277-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-020-01277-7