Abstract
In this article, we develop a semi-analytical solution for a structural model that combines jump and regime switching risk. We use an Esscher transform that is applicable to regime switching double exponential jump diffusion to move from the historical world to the risk-neutral world. Further, we define and implement a matrix Wiener–Hopf factorization associated with the latter process, allowing us to price the various components of balance sheet. We illustrate the model with a study of a bank that issues contingent convertible bonds (CoCos). Thus, we obtain valuation formulas for the bank’s equity, debt, deposits, CoCos, and deposit insurance. We also show in an illustration the respective effects of the jump risk and of regime switching on the values of all of a bank’s balance sheet components.
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Notes
The probabilistic explanations of Eqs. (3.5) and (3.6) are the same. We demonstrate the eq. (3.6) in the case \(\mathfrak {R}({\bar{\beta }}_j)\ne 0\). The equation \(f(-{\bar{\beta }}_j)=0\) implies that
$$\begin{aligned} M^j_t=\langle \varvec{\gamma }_{2n+j},\varvec{Y}_t\rangle e^{{\bar{\beta }}_j A_t} \end{aligned}$$is a martingale. Because \(\mathfrak {R}({\bar{\beta }}_j)< 0\), \(M^j_t\) is bounded on \([0,\tau _0^-]\). Then, the Doob’s optional sample theorem yields:
$$\begin{aligned} \gamma _{2n+j,k}=E_{\varvec{s}_k}(\langle \varvec{\gamma }_{2n+j},\varvec{{\widetilde{Y}}}^-_0 \rangle )=\left\{ \begin{aligned} (\zeta ^{(\varvec{a},-)} \varvec{{\bar{\vartheta }}}_j)_k&\qquad {\text {if }} k=1,2,\ldots ,n \\ {\bar{\vartheta }}_{j,k-n}&\qquad {\text {if }} k=n+1,n+2,\ldots ,3n \\ \end{aligned} \right. . \end{aligned}$$The Swiss banking regulatory institution points out that for the minimum capital ratio 19% of Swiss banks, 9% can compose of contingent convertible capital. Thus, we chose 10% for the proportion of CoCos in the capital structure.
The Gaver–Stehfest algorithm does the inversion on the real line. For main advantages of this algorithm see in Kou and Wang (2003). Note that the definition of the matrix Wiener–Hopf factorization also works for complex \(\varvec{{\widehat{a}}}\). Thus, other numerical Laplace inversion algorithms, such as the Abate-Whitt method, can also be used.
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Acknowledgements
The research was supported by NSF of China (Grant: 71333014, 71571007).
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Appendices
Appendix A
1.1 Proof of Proposition 2.1
Proof
Let \(\varvec{d}\) be a null vector. Inserting it into Lemma 2.1, we readily have:
The sufficient condition of the martingale condition is then obvious. Denote
Assume that the martingale condition is satisfied:
Then,
Similarly, eq. (A.1) means
Therefore,
Since this equation is satisfied for any initial vector of states \(\varvec{J}_0\),
\(\square \)
1.2 Proof of Proposition 2.2
Proof
Because the Markov chain \(\varvec{J}\) is not changed under \({\mathbb {Q}}\) and
the Laplace exponent \(\varphi _i^*(u)\) of \(X^i\) under \({\mathbb {Q}}\) is
The term \(\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}{{\widehat{\sigma }}_i}^2 u^2+{\widehat{\xi }}_{i}{{\widehat{\sigma }}_i}^2 u\) corresponds to \({\widehat{\sigma }}_i W_1\sim N({\widehat{\xi }}_{i}{{\widehat{\sigma }}_i}^2,{{\widehat{\sigma }}_i}^2)\). Then, we have that \(W^*\) defined by \(W^*_t=W_t-\int \limits _0^t \xi _{s}\sigma _s \mathrm {d}s\) is a standard Brownian motion under \({\mathbb {Q}}\) with respect to \({\mathcal {F}}\).
Denote
After simple computations, we obtain:
This expression shows that \(X^i\) remains a double exponential jump diffusion process under \({\mathbb {Q}}\) where
From \(E_{{\mathbb {Q}}}(e^{X_t})=e^{\int \limits _0^t r_s \mathrm {d}s}\), we see that \({\widehat{\mu }}^*_i\) satisfies
Therefore, the structure of the regime switching double exponential jump diffusion process is unchanged under the new measure \({\mathbb {Q}}\). \(\square \)
1.3 Proof of Proposition 3.1
Proof
Let the \(2n \times 1\) vector \(\varvec{{\bar{h}}}=({\bar{h}}_1,\ldots ,{\bar{h}}_{2n})'\) and \(\varvec{h}^-_{\tau }=\langle \varvec{Y}_{\tau },\varvec{{\widehat{h}}^-} \rangle \) where the \(1 \times 3n\) vector \(\varvec{{\widehat{h}}^-} =(0,\ldots ,0,\varvec{{\bar{h}}}').\) From the Markov chain theory, we have:
When \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau } \in E^0\), \(X_{\tau }=b\). When \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau } \in E^-\) and \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau }=\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\), the overshoot \(|X_{\tau }-b|\) is independent of \(\tau \) and has an exponential distribution with parameter \({\widehat{\theta }}_i\). Then, we have:
Since
we have:
\(\square \)
1.4 Proof of Lemma 3.2
Proof
The \(Q^{(\varvec{a},+)}\) and \(Q^{(\varvec{a},-)}\) are the generator matrices. Then, we have
The eigenvalues of \(e^{Q^{(\varvec{a},+)}}\) and \(e^{Q^{(\varvec{a},-)}}\) are \(e^{{\widetilde{\beta }}_1},\ldots ,e^{{\widetilde{\beta }}_{2n}}\) and \(e^{{\bar{\beta }}_1},\ldots ,e^{{\bar{\beta }}_{2n}}\), respectively. From the Perron-Frobenius theorem, we obtain
where |z| is the modulus of \(z \in {\mathbb {C}}\). Then,
The
gives the results. \(\square \)
Appendix B
The valuation of balance sheet components is conducted under the risk-neutral measure \({\mathbb {Q}}\). It makes use of Lemmas 2.1 and 3.1, Corollary 3.1 and Proposition 3.1.
1.1 Valuation of Straight Bonds
We have:
and
Then, by the Fubini theorem, we exchange the order of integration for t and s and obtain:
Further, we obtain:
From Corollary 3.1, we obtain:
Then, we compute:
Finally, we have:
1.2 Valuation of Deposit Insurance
We compute:
and
Then,
Finally, we define the \(n \times 1\) vector \(\varvec{K}\) for simple representation and obtain:
1.3 Valuation of CoCos
We have:
and
Further, we obtain:
and
From Corollary 3.1, we have:
We compute \(S_{\tau _1}\) by subtracting the value of straight bonds and deposits from the bank’s value at conversion time \(\tau _1\). The bank’s value at conversion time \(\tau _1\) is
so that
Then, the value of the bank’s equity \(S_{\tau _1}\) is
Then, we have:
Further, we have:
Note that the computation of \(T_2, T_3\) and \(R_2, R_3\) are the same as that of \(T_1\) and \(R_1\), respectively. Thus, we focus on the calculation of \(T_1, U_1, E_1, R_1\). Then, we have:
-
$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} T_1&{}=\Big (\gamma (c_1 D_1+c_2 D_2)-\varsigma D_2\Big ) \left( E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}\le x_C\}} e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} \varvec{J}_{\tau _1} \right) \right. \\ &{}\quad +E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}> x_C\}} e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} \varvec{Y}_{\tau _1} W^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}\left( X_{\tau _1}-x_C\right) }H(0)\right) \\ &{}\quad \left. -\varvec{Y}_0 W^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}} +l,-)}e^{Q^{( \varvec{{\widehat{r}}}+l,-)}\left( x-x_B\right) }H(0)\right) \Big (Q-\text {diag}(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}})\Big )^{-1}{\mathbf {1}}_n, \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
-
$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} U_1&{}=E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}\le x_C\}} e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} \bigg (-(c_2+k) D_2 \varvec{J}_{\tau _1} \Big (Q-\text {diag}(k+\varvec{{\widehat{r}}})\Big )^{-1}{\mathbf {1}}_n-\pi _2 D_2\bigg )^+\right) \\ &{}\quad +E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}> x_C\}} e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} \varvec{Y}_{\tau _1} W^{( \varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}\left( X_{\tau _1}-x_C\right) }H(0)\varvec{K}\right) , \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
-
$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} E_1&{}=(1-\kappa )V_0\left( E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}\le x_C\}} e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} e^{X_{\tau _1}}\right) \right. \\ &{}\quad \left. +E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}> x_C\}} e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} e^{x_C}\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1} W^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}\left( X_{\tau _1}-x_C\right) }\varvec{{\widetilde{I}}}\right) \right) , \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
-
$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} R_1&{}=(\pi _1D_1+\pi _2D_2)\left( E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}\le x_C\}} e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u}\right) \right. \\ &{}\quad +\left. E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}> x_C\}} e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} \varvec{Y}_{\tau _1} W^{( \varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}\left( X_{\tau _1}-x_C\right) }{\mathbf {1}}_{2n}\right) \right) . \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
Denote by \(E_i=E^+_i\cup E^0_i \cup E^-_i=\{\varvec{s}_i\}\cup \{\varvec{s}_{n+i}\} \cup \{\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\}, i=1,\ldots ,n\), the subset of E where \(E^0_i, E^+_i\) and \(E^-_i\) correspond to the state \(\varvec{e}_i\) where X moves as a pure diffusion, makes a positive jump and makes a negative jump, respectively. The first passage time across a lower barrier can only happen when X moves as a pure diffusion or makes a negative jump, that is, \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}\in E^0 \cup E^-\). When \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}\in E^0_i\), \(X_{\tau _1}=x_B\). When \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}\in E^-_i\), the overshoot \(|X_{\tau _1}-x_B|\) is independent of \(\tau _1\) and has an exponential distribution with parameter \({\widehat{\theta }}_{i}\). Since the specific distribution of \(|X_{\tau _1}-x_B|\) depends on \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}\) and \(X_{\tau _1}<x_C\) can only happen when \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}\in E^-\), we have:
-
$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} T_1&{}=\Big (\gamma (c_1 D_1+c_2 D_2)-\varsigma D_2\Big )\left( \sum \limits _{i=1}^{n}E\left( e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u}\mathbb {1}_{\{\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\}}\right) \underbrace{E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}\le x_C\}}|\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1} =\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\right) }_{Z_1}\varvec{e}_i\right. \\ &{}\quad +\sum \limits _{i=1}^{2n} E\left( e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} \mathbb {1}_{\{ \varvec{Y}_{\tau _1} =\varvec{s}_{n+i}\}}\right) \underbrace{E\left( \varvec{s}_{n+i} W^{( \varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}\left( X_{\tau _1}-x_C\right) }\mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}> x_C\}}|\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{n+i}\right) }_{Z_2}H(0) \\ &{}\quad \left. - \varvec{Y}_0 W^{( \varvec{{\widehat{r}}}+l,-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}}+l,-)}\left( x-x_B\right) }H(0)\right) \Big (Q-\text {diag}(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}})\Big )^{-1}{\mathbf {1}}_n, \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
-
$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} U_1&{}=\sum \limits _{i=1}^{n}E\left( e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u } \mathbb {1}_{\{\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\}}\right) E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}\le x_C\}}|\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\right) \\ &{}\qquad \bigg (-(c_2+k) D_2 \varvec{e}_i \Big (Q-\text {diag}(k+\varvec{{\widehat{r}}})\Big )^{-1}{\mathbf {1}}_n-\pi _2 D_2\bigg )^+\\ &{}\quad +\sum \limits _{i=1}^{2n}E\left( e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u } \mathbb {1}_{\{\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{n+i}\}}\right) E\left( \varvec{s}_{n+i} W^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}\left( X_{\tau _1}-x_C\right) }\mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}> x_C\}}|\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{n+i}\right) H(0)\varvec{K}, \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
-
$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} E_1&{}=(1-\kappa )V_0 \left( \sum \limits _{i=1}^{n} E\left( e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} \mathbb {1}_{\{\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\}}\right) \underbrace{E\left( e^{X_{\tau _1}}\mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}\le x_C\}}|\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\right) }_{Z_3} \right. \\ &{}\quad \left. +e^{x_C}\sum \limits _{i=1}^{2n} E\left( e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u} \mathbb {1}_{\{\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{n+i}\}} \right) E\left( \varvec{s}_{n+i} W^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}\left( X_{\tau _1}-x_C\right) }\mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}> x_C\}}|\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{n+i}\right) \varvec{{\widetilde{I}}} \right) , \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
-
$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} R_1&{}=(\pi _1D_1+\pi _2D_2)\left( \sum \limits _{i=1}^{n} E\left( e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u }\mathbb {1}_{\{\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\}} \right) E\left( \mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}\le x_C\}}|\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{2n+i}\right) \right. \\ &{}\quad \left. +\sum \limits _{i=1}^{2n} E\left( e^{-\int \limits _0^{\tau _1}(l+r_u) \mathrm {d}u } \mathbb {1}_{\{\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{n+i}\}} \right) E\left( \varvec{s}_{n+i} W^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}\left( X_{\tau _1}-x_C\right) }\mathbb {1}_{\{X_{\tau _1}> x_C\}}|\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}=\varvec{s}_{n+i} \right) {\mathbf {1}}_{2n}\right) . \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
Next, we compute three unknown terms \(Z_1, Z_2, Z_3\). Since \(X_{\tau _1}=x_B\) when \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}\in E^0\), we only need calculate \(Z_2\) in the case that \(\varvec{Y}_{\tau _1}\in E^-\). Then, we have:
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$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} Z_1&=e^{{\widehat{\theta }}_{i}(x_C-x_B)}, \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
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$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} Z_2&{}=\varvec{s}_{2n+i} W^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}(x_B-x_C)}\int \limits _{(x_C-x_B)}^0 e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)x}}{\widehat{\theta }}_{i} e^{{\widehat{\theta }}_{i}x} \mathrm {d}x\\ &{}={\widehat{\theta }}_{i} \varvec{s}_{2n+i} W^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}e^{Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}(x_B-x_C)}(Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}+{\widehat{\theta }}_{i}I_{2n})^{-1}\left( I_{2n}-e^{(Q^{(\varvec{{\widehat{r}}},-)}+{\widehat{\theta }}_{i}I_{2n})(x_C-x_B)}\right) , \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
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$$\begin{aligned} \begin{array}{cl} Z_3&{}=e^{x_B}\int \limits _{-\infty }^{(x_C-x_B)} e^x {\widehat{\theta }}_{i} e^{{\widehat{\theta }}_{i}x} \mathrm {d}x\\ &{}=\displaystyle \frac{{\widehat{\theta }}_{i}}{{\widehat{\theta }}_{i}+1}e^{({\widehat{\theta }}_{i}+1)x_C-{\widehat{\theta }}_{i} x_B}. \end{array} \end{aligned}$$
Then, we define the matrices \({\mathcal {G}}_1,{\mathcal {G}}_2,{\mathcal {G}}_3, {\mathcal {M}}\) and the vector \(\varvec{N}\) for simple representation and have:
Finally, by recalling that \(C=C_1+C_2\), we have:
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Le Courtois, O., Su, X. Structural Pricing of CoCos and Deposit Insurance with Regime Switching and Jumps. Asia-Pac Financ Markets 27, 477–520 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-020-09304-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-020-09304-6