Abstract
Until recently, society relied on abundant and affordable fossil energy, often overlooking economic and environmental considerations. As energy scarcity and costs rise, the energy received on energy invested (EROI) decreases. Unlike earlier studies that optimized energy sources without factoring EROI, this research uniquely identifies and optimizes the energy resources, emphasizing EROI maximization as a pivotal criterion. This study examines the trends and dynamics of electricity consumption for the state of Tamil Nadu in India over three decades, revealing an increasing linear trend. The econometric model highlights the influence of factors such as population, GDP, and electricity prices. The forecasting model projects a substantial rise in electricity demand by 2040–41, prompting the development of an optimization model for sustainable energy allocation. The uncertainty analysis indicates that the model is robust, demonstrating only a minor deviation (<5%) in projected values from actual outcomes, affirming its reliability for future energy planning and policymaking. From the scenarios developed, it is found that the contribution of renewable energy sources in total electricity generation should increase from 36.45 to 52.16%. This will help the EROI of the state to switch to an increasing trend and to implement the most optimal energy source for electricity generation to meet future demand in a sustainable manner. Policy implications for long-term sustainable development are also discussed to aid the policymakers, academicians and industrialists—thus making our society sustainable.
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Data availability
The data used in the analysis of this paper is provided by Central Statistics office, Government of India; Central Electricity Authority, Government of India; Census Population, Government of India; and Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government of India and are available in the Dataverse repository https://mospi.gov.in/statistical-year-book-india/2016/185, https://cea.nic.in/installed-capacity-report/?lang=en, https://www.census2011.co.in/census/state/tamil+nadu.html and https://mnre.gov.in/, respectively.
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Dsilva Winfred Rufuss, D., Sonu Ashritha, K.S. & Suganthi, L. Green energy revolution: A unique approach for energy forecasting and optimization towards sustainable energy planning and social development. Environ Dev Sustain (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04826-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04826-9