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Landslide susceptibility and influencing factors analysis in Rwanda

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Abstract

Rwanda as a landlocked country has been recurrently facing tremendous and devastating landslides having serious impacts on the environment and socioeconomic development. Analyzing landslide susceptibility and its influencing factors could ease landslide disaster control and, hence, contributes to environmental sustainability. Unfortunately, detailed information on influencing factors per respective classes and their level of correlation to the probability of landslide occurrence have not been fully analyzed in Rwanda. The purpose of this study is to reveal the spatial correlation between landslide occurrence and different classes of influencing factors using the frequency ratio (FR) approach with geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Initially, a landslide inventory map was prepared using 423 landslide locations that were randomly split into 75% of training datasets (318 points) and 25% (105 points) to validate the model. A multicollinearity analysis was performed among ten influencing factors using the tolerance and variance inflation factor method. These factors include elevation, slope, aspect, distance to roads, distance to rivers, the normalized difference vegetation index, land use land cover, stream power index, rainfall and soil texture. The analysis revealed no multicollinearity among these factors, and therefore, all of them were suitable for modeling process. The FR model evaluated the relationship between landslide incidence and influencing factors in their respective classes and then generated the landslide susceptibility map using GIS which revealed the western, northern and some parts of southern province as the most susceptible areas owing to the slope, LCLU, rainfall and elevation as the main influencing factors. The generated susceptibility map was validated using the area under curve which portrayed 81.2% and 84.6% for success and prediction rate, respectively. To conclude, the results of this study are essential for future initiatives regarding landslide risk reduction toward sustainability in Rwanda. However, these can be broad and may reflect the most landslide influencing factors projected in other central-east African regions.

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Fig. 1

Source: Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

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Acknowledgements

Authors express their sincere gratitude for the research funding provided by the Chinese Academy of Science (UCAS) to fully complete this article. The authors are also thankful to the Ministry of Emergency Management in Rwanda for the provision of data and information, and the National Engineering Laboratory for Integrated Aero-Space-Ground-Ocean Big Data Application Technology of Northwestern Polytechnical University for its remarkable assistance in the data collection and processing.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang, Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Ürümqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China

    Richard Mind’je, Lanhai Li, Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva, Aboubakar Gasirabo & Egide Hakorimana

  2. Ili Station for Watershed Ecosystem Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ürümqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China

    Richard Mind’je & Lanhai Li

  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Richard Mind’je, Lanhai Li, Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva, Patient Mindje Kayumba, Aboubakar Gasirabo & Egide Hakorimana

  4. Faculty of Environmental Sciences, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali (UNILAK), P.O Box 6392, Kigali, Rwanda

    Richard Mind’je, Christophe Mupenzi, Enan Muhire Nyesheja, Patient Mindje Kayumba, Aboubakar Gasirabo & Egide Hakorimana

  5. CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, 818 South Beijing Road, Ürümqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China

    Lanhai Li

  6. Xinjiang Regional Center of Resources and Environmental Science Instrument, CAS, Ürümqi, 830011, China

    Lanhai Li

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  1. Richard Mind’je
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  2. Lanhai Li
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  3. Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva
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Correspondence to Lanhai Li.

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Mind’je, R., Li, L., Nsengiyumva, J.B. et al. Landslide susceptibility and influencing factors analysis in Rwanda. Environ Dev Sustain 22, 7985–8012 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00557-4

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