Abstract
The current study delved into an extensive analysis of multi-year observations on PM10 to have trends at various time scales in Delhi, India. High-resolution ground observations from all 37 monitoring stations from 2015 to 2022 were used. This study used non-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) based smooth-trend and Theil-Sen slope estimator techniques to analyze temporal trends and variations. The long-term PM10 concentration, both in its ambient and de-seasonalized forms, exhibited a statistically significant decreasing trend. An average decrease of − 7.57 [95% confidence interval (CI) − 16.51, 0.18] µg m−3 year−1 for ambient PM10 and − 8.45 [95% CI − 11.96, − 5.58] µg m−3 year−1 for de-seasonalized PM10 mass concentration was observed. Breaking it down into seasons, we observed significant declines in PM10 concentrations during monsoon (− 10.71 µg m−3 year−1, p < 0.1) and post-monsoon (− 7.49 µg m−3 year−1, p < 0.001). On the other hand, summer and winter displayed statistically insignificant declining trends of − 5.32 µg m−3 year−1 and − 6.06 µg m−3 year−1, respectively. Remarkably, all months except March displayed declining PM10 concentrations, suggesting a gradual reduction in particle pollution across the city. Further analysis of PM10 across various wind sectors revealed a consistent decreasing trend in all wind directions. The most substantial decrease was observed from the northwest (− 10.24 µg m−3 year−1), while the minimum reduction occurred from the east (− 5.67 µg m−3 year−1). Throughout the 8-year study period, the daily average PM10 concentration remained at 228 ± 124 µg m−3, ranging from 33 to 819 µg m−3. Seasonal variations were apparent, with concentrations during winter, summer, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons averaging 279 ± 133, 224 ± 117, 135 ± 95, and 323 ± 142 µg m−3, respectively. November had the highest and August had the lowest concentration. Weekend PM10 concentration is slightly lower than weekdays. These findings emphasize the need for more stringent government action plans.
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Acknowledgements
The authors express their gratitude to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for providing access to the ERA5 dataset through the Copernicus Climate Change Service. We also extend our appreciation to the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), Delhi Pollution Control Committee (DPCC), and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing the online PM10 surface data.
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Chetna: Conceptualization, Original draft, Methodology, Investigation, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – Review & Editing, Data curation; Sam-Erik Walker: Conceptualization, Methodology, Investigation, Supervision, Writing – Review and Editing, Project administration; Vikas Rawat: Investigation, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – Review & Editing, Data curation; Surendra K. Dhaka and Narendra Singh: Supervision, Writing – Review and Editing.
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Highlights
• PM10 showed an overall declining trend over Delhi during 2015–2022.
• All wind directions displayed a decline in PM10 concentration.
• Except for March, all months exhibited a downward trend in PM10 levels.
• Only monsoon and post-monsoon seasons exhibited a significant downtrend in PM10.
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Chetna, Dhaka, S.K., Walker, SE. et al. Decoding temporal patterns and trends of PM10 pollution over Delhi: a multi-year analysis (2015–2022). Environ Monit Assess 196, 500 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12638-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12638-7