Abstract
Given the huge carbon footprint of agricultural activities, reduction in agricultural carbon emission (ACE) is important to achieve China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, but it may affect agricultural food security and economic development. Therefore, it is important for scientific carbon reduction measures to understand the multi-year trends and the influencing factors of ACE, and clarify whether the process of ACE affects food security and economic development. This study analyzed the trends of total ACE and ACE caused by different agricultural carbon sources (ACS) from 2001 to 2020 in Zhejiang Province, then we revealed the main influencing factors of ACE based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model and dissected the relationship between ACE and food security and economic development. Results show that the total ACE fluctuated from 6.10 Mt in 2001 to 3.93 Mt in 2020, and the process included a decrease in 2001–2003 and 2005–2020 and an increase in 2003–2005. The decrease in ACE, from 2001 to 2014, was mainly due to the decline in rice acreage, which contributed 90.38%; from 2014 to 2020, it was by the reduction in the use of fertilizer, diesel, and pesticide, which contributed 83.9%. As drivers, agricultural economic development effect and total population size effect drove 4.25 and 1.54 Mt of ACE, respectively. As inhibitors, planting structure effect, technology development effect, and population structure effect inhibited 3.12, 2.11, and 2.74 Mt of ACE, respectively. With the reduction of ACE, the agricultural economy continued to grow, but the food security situation was pessimistic, indicating that ACE reduction has achieved synergy with economic development, but not with food security.
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The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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This study was funded by the National Key Research and Development Project of China (2018YFC1800403) and the National Natural Science Fund of China (41571226).
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QX and ML provided a formal logical analysis of the full text and wrote the main manuscript text. ML and XX supervised, reviewed, and edited the full text. BG collected and processed data and prepared Figures 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. XL and HQ processed data and prepared Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. All authors reviewed the manuscript.
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Xia, Q., Liao, M., Xie, X. et al. Agricultural carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province, China (2001–2020): changing trends, influencing factors, and has it achieved synergy with food security and economic development?. Environ Monit Assess 195, 1391 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11998-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11998-w