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Spatio-temporal change analysis and prediction of land use and land cover changes using CA-ANN model

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Abstract

The spatial and temporal representation of land use and land cover (LULC) changes helps to understand the interactions between natural habitats and other areas and to plan for sustainability. Research on the models used to determine the spatio-temporal change of LULC and simulation of possible future scenarios provides a perspective for future planning and development strategies. Landsat 5 TM for 1990, Landsat 7 ETM + for 2006, and Landsat 8 OLI for 2022 satellite imageries were used to estimate spatial and temporal variations of transition potentials and future LULC simulation. Independent variables (DEM, slope, and distances to roads and buildings) and the cellular automata–artificial neural network (CA-ANN) model integrated in the MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS were used. The CA-ANN model was used to predict the LULC maps for 2038 and 2054, and the results suggest that artificial surfaces will continue to increase. The Düzce City center’s artificial surfaces grew by 100% between 1990 and 2022, from 16.04 to 33.10 km2, and are projected to be 41.13 km2 and 50.32 km2 in 2038 and 2054, respectively. Artificial surfaces, which covered 20% of the study area in 1990, are estimated to cover 64.07% in 2054. If this trend continues, most of the 1st-class agricultural lands may be lost. The study’s results can assist local governments in their land management strategies and aid them in planning for the future. The results suggest that policies are necessary to control the expansion of artificial surfaces, ensuring a balanced distribution of land use.

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The data supporting this study’s findings are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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  1. Department of Forest Management and Planning, Faculty of Forestry, Duzce University, Duzce, Turkey

    Ahmet Salih Değermenci

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The author contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Ahmet Salih Değermenci. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Ahmet Salih Değermenci and the author commented on previous versions of the manuscript. The author read and approved the final manuscript.

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Değermenci, A.S. Spatio-temporal change analysis and prediction of land use and land cover changes using CA-ANN model. Environ Monit Assess 195, 1229 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11848-9

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