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Analysis of the eutrophication in a wetland using a data-driven model

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Abstract

Eutrophication is a major problem in the international Anzali wetland (northern Iran). The present research initially aimed to determine the trophic state index (TSI) in ten sampling sites in the main parts of the Anzali wetland (western, eastern, central, and Siahkeshim parts). After determining the TSI in the wetland, a data-driven method (classification tree model with a J48 algorithm) was implemented to predict the trophic condition in the wetland based on a set of water quality and physical-structural variables. One hundred twenty samples related to chlorophyll-a (the model’s output) and environmental variables (the model’s inputs) were measured monthly during 1-year study period (2017–2018). Based on the TSI calculation, the western, Siahkeshim, eastern, and central parts of the wetland are classified as eutrophic, super-eutrophic, hyper-eutrophic, and hyper-eutrophic, respectively. When all environmental variables were introduced to the model (with five-time randomization effort, pruning confidence factor = 0.01, and seven-fold cross-validation), eight variables (bicarbonate, pH, water temperature, electric conductivity, dissolved oxygen, total phosphorus, water depth, and water turbidity) were predicted by the model. The model predicted that an increase in total phosphate, water turbidity, and electric conductivity concentration may contribute to the hyper-eutrophic state of the wetland. In contrast, the hyper-eutrophic of the wetland is associated with a decrease in water depth, dissolved oxygen, and pH concentration. According to ANOVA test, the trophic condition in the wetland can be affected by spatial and temporal patterns. Anthropogenic pressures such as the influx of chemicals particularly the nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) are the main cause of water enrichment (eutrophication problem) in main parts of the Anzali wetland ecosystem.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge Pourya Bahri for providing the map of the sampling sites. He followed his Master of Science study in the Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Guilan, Iran.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Natural Resources, Department of Environmental Science, University of Guilan, Sowmeh Sara, P.O. Box 1144, Guilan, Iran

    Rahmat Zarkami

  2. Inland Waters Aquaculture Research Center, Education and Extension Organization, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Bandar Anzali, Iran

    Ali Abedini

  3. Department of Animal Sciences and Aquatic Ecology, Ghent University, 9000, Ghent, Belgium

    Roghayeh Sadeghi Pasvisheh

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  1. Rahmat Zarkami
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  2. Ali Abedini
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  3. Roghayeh Sadeghi Pasvisheh
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Contributions

First author: data collection and manuscript writing and the proposed applied modelling techniques. The second author: data collection and sampling design. The last author: the proposed modelling techniques and manuscript writing.

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Correspondence to Rahmat Zarkami.

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Zarkami, R., Abedini, A. & Sadeghi Pasvisheh, R. Analysis of the eutrophication in a wetland using a data-driven model. Environ Monit Assess 194, 882 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10581-z

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