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Event-based landslide susceptibility models in Shihmen watershed, Taiwan: accounting for the characteristics of rainfall events

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Abstract

When performing a landslide susceptibility analysis, a model is usually established on the basis of a multi-temporal or event-triggered landslide inventory. Because multi-temporal landslide inventories for most areas are rarely available, an event-triggered landslide inventory is often used, but the result depends on the selection of single event. In order to establish a landslide susceptibility model with a good prediction performance, the present study tried to find out how to select a single event-triggered landslide inventory, and investigated the effect of various combinations of event inventories. We selected Shihmen reservoir watershed as the research area, conducted a logistic regression analysis to build 23 event-based landslide susceptibility models and one multi-year landslide susceptibility model, and estimated the performance of these models. In addition, this study further assessed the influence of event characteristics on the model prediction performance, used the above results to merge two different events, and then established models based on these combinations. The results indicated that when establishing an event-based landslide susceptibility model, selecting events with suitable rainfall return periods and landslide density can yield robust models with relatively high predictive ability. Furthermore, the combination of two events which negatively correlate with each other in rainfall spatial distributions can enhance a model’s predictive ability and modeling efficiency.

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Abbreviations

ACC:

Accuracy

AUROC:

Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve

AUSRC:

Area under the success rate curve

DEM:

Digital elevation model

FPR:

False positive rate

LISA:

Local indicators of spatial association

ROC:

Receiver operating characteristic

SRC:

Success rate curve

TPR:

True positive rate

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Water Resources Agency, MOEA, Taiwan for providing rainfall data, and C.L. Hsueh for her work on the event-based landslide inventories. We sincerely thank anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript.

Funding

This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan, under Grant No. MOST 108–2625-M-005–003.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung City, 402, Taiwan

    Chun-Yi Wu & Sheng-Yu Lin

Authors
  1. Chun-Yi Wu
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  2. Sheng-Yu Lin
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Contributions

Conceptualization: CYW; Methodology: CYW and SYL; Formal analysis and investigation: CYW and SYL; Writing—original draft preparation: CYW and SYL; Writing—review and editing: CYW; Funding acquisition: CYW. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chun-Yi Wu.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Appendices

Appendix 1

Overview of the satellite image data used over the period of 1996 to 2015

Typhoon event

Pre-event satellite image

Post-event satellite image

Date

Resolution

Band

Source

Date

Resolution

Band

Source

1-Herb

1996/01/01

10.0 m

Pan

SPOT 2

1996/11/08

10.0 m

Pan

SPOT 2

2-Xangsane

2000/10/11

10.0 m

Pan

SPOT 1

2001/03/15

10.0 m

Pan

SPOT 2

3-Toraji

2001/03/15

10.0 m

Pan

SPOT 2

2001/08/22

10.0 m

Pan

SPOT 2

4-Nari

2001/08/22

10.0 m

Pan

SPOT 2

2001/10/13

10.0 m

Pan

SPOT 2

5-Aere

2004/02/10

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

2004/11/02

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

6-Haitang

2005/03/16

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

2005/07/25

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

7-Matsa

2005/07/25

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2005/08/16

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

8-Talim

2005/08/16

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2005/09/09

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

9-Longwang

2005/09/09

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2005/11/11

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

10-Shanshan

2005/11/11

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

2006/10/20

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

11-Krosa

2007/08/28

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

2007/12/21

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

12-Jangmi

2008/08/24

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2008/11/02

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

13-Morakot

2009/05/08

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

2009/08/20

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

14-Parma

2009/08/20

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

2009/10/21

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

15-Fanapi

2010/04/01

2.5 m

Pan

SPOT 5

2010/09/22

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

16-Megi

2010/09/22

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2010/11/01

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

17-Meari

2011/04/20

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2011/07/28

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

18-Nanmadol

2011/07/28

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2011/09/17

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

19-Talim(2)

2011/09/17

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2012/07/02

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

20-Saola

2012/07/02

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2012/08/15

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

21-Soulik

2012/08/15

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2013/08/04

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

22-Matmo

2013/08/04

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2014/08/25

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

23-Soudelor

2015/04/15

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

2015/09/18

2.0 m

Pan

FORMOSAT 2

Appendix 2

figure 11

Maps of intrinsic susceptibility variables

Appendix 3

figure 12

Landslide susceptibility maps of the 23 event-based susceptibility models

Appendix 4

figure 13

Landslide susceptibility map of the multi-year susceptibility model

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Wu, CY., Lin, SY. Event-based landslide susceptibility models in Shihmen watershed, Taiwan: accounting for the characteristics of rainfall events. Environ Monit Assess 194, 405 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10075-y

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