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Exploring and quantifying the impact of climate change on surface water temperature of a high mountain lake in Central Europe

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Abstract

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969–2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results showed that the prominent warming of the LSWT and air temperature began around 1997. A logistic non-linear S-curve function was used to model monthly average LSWT. The non-linear model performed well to capture monthly average LSWT and air temperature relationships (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient 0.86 and the root mean squared error 1.63 °C). Using the 2009–2018 period as base scenario, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results showed that the annual mean LSWT will likely increase about + 1.29 °C and + 2.64 °C with air temperature increases of + 2 °C and + 4 °C respectively at the end of the twenty-first century. If realized, such a scenario will cause serious consequences on lake ecosystem.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management–National Research Institute in Poland for providing the data used in this study.

Funding

This work was jointly funded by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC0407200), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2018M640499), Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research Scientific Development Fund (201910), and the research project from Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute (Y118009).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China

    Senlin Zhu

  2. Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, Poznań, Poland

    Mariusz Ptak & Adam Choiński

  3. Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Northwest University, Xi’an, China

    Songbai Wu

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  1. Senlin Zhu
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Correspondence to Senlin Zhu.

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Zhu, S., Ptak, M., Choiński, A. et al. Exploring and quantifying the impact of climate change on surface water temperature of a high mountain lake in Central Europe. Environ Monit Assess 192, 7 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7994-y

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