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Use of systems analysis to develop plant disease models based on literature data: grape black-rot as a case-study

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Abstract

The available knowledge on black-rot of grape was retrieved from literature, analyzed, and synthesized to develop a mechanistic model of the life cycle of the pathogen (Guignardia bidwelii) based on the systems analysis. Three life-cycle compartments were defined: (i) production and maturation of inoculum in overwintered sources (i.e., ascospores from pseudothecia and conidia from pycnidia in berry mummies and cane lesions); (ii) infection caused by ascospores and conidia; and (iii) disease onset and production of secondary inoculum. An analysis of published, quantitative information was conducted to develop a mechanistic model driven by weather and vine phenology; equations were developed for ascospore and conidial maturation in overwintered fruiting bodies, spore release and survival, infection occurrence and severity, incubation and latency periods, onset of lesions, production of pycnidia, and infectious periods. The model was then evaluated for its ability to represent the real system and its usefulness for understanding black-rot epidemics by using three typical epidemics. Finally, weaknesses in our knowledge are discussed. Additional research is needed concerning the influence of wetness duration and temperature on infection by ascospores, production dynamics of pycnidia and conidia in black-rot lesions, and the dynamics of conidia exudation from pycnidia.

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Acknowledgments

Part of this work was performed within the EU funded project “Modem_IVM” (www.modem-ivm.eu) FP7-SME-2010-1, grant no. 262059. G. Onesti carried out this work within the Doctoral School on the Agro-Food System (Agrisystem) of the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore (Italy).

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  1. Istituto di Entomologia e Patologia vegetale, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Piacenza, Italy

    Vittorio Rossi, Giovanni Onesti & Tito Caffi

  2. Horta S.r.l., Piacenza, Italy

    Sara E. Legler

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  1. Vittorio Rossi
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  2. Giovanni Onesti
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  3. Sara E. Legler
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  4. Tito Caffi
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Correspondence to Vittorio Rossi.

Electronic supplementary material

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ESM 1

Meta-synthesis of the literature used to develop the relational diagram of the life cycle of G. bidwelii (Fig. 1 and Tab. 1 of the article) and the different model compartments (DOCX 34 kb)

ESM 2

Description on how the literature data were used to develop the model equations for: maturation of ascospores in pseudothecia, infection severity on leaves and duration of latency (PDF 439 kb)

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Rossi, V., Onesti, G., Legler, S.E. et al. Use of systems analysis to develop plant disease models based on literature data: grape black-rot as a case-study. Eur J Plant Pathol 141, 427–444 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-014-0553-z

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