Abstract
Technological innovation has promoted the development of human flourishing. Based on panel data for 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2022, this study examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on manufacturing employment in China using the two-way fixed-effect model and the instrumental variable method. The study finds that contrary to the traditional impression of “machines replacing humans,” AI technology is correlated with increasing the total number of jobs on the market. Thanks to more efficient labor productivity, capital deepening, and specialized division of labor from integrating digital technology, AI offsets the negative effect of robots on employment and significantly increases manufacturing enterprises’ market size and production scale, with a significant job creation effect. Heterogeneity is evident in the positive impact of AI on employment, which has increased the number of jobs in labor-intensive industries and for female workers. Regions with more complete digital infrastructure construction exhibit stronger job creation effects. Mechanism research reveals that the geographical agglomeration mode of traditional industries are undergoing evolutionary transitions under the transformation of digital technology, and modern industrial agglomeration represented by virtual agglomeration is an indispensable mediating mechanism for AI to create jobs. The study’s conclusions can alleviate citizen’s concerns regarding AI crowding-out jobs, encouraging workers and policymakers to make full use of AI technology to improve employment in the digital economy era.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data used in this study are publicly available and have been correctly cited. Datasets used or analyzed in the current study are available from corresponding authors upon reasonable request.
References
Acemoglu D, Restrepo P (2018) Low-skill and high-skill automation. J Hum Cap 12(2):204–232. https://doi.org/10.1086/697242
Attar MA (2021) Growth, distribution and dynamic inefficiency in Turkey: an analysis of the naïve neoclassical theory of capital. Struct Change Econ Dyn 59:20–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.07.008
Autor D (2019) Work of the past, work of the future. AEA Pap Proc 109(4):1–32. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20191110
Bai J (2009) Panel data models with interactive fixed effects. Econometrica 77(4):1229–1279. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6135
Bai F, Huang Y, Shang M, Ahmad M (2023) Modeling the impact of digital economy on urban environmental pollution: empirical evidence from 277 prefecture-level cities in China. Front Environ Sci 10:991022. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.991022
Balsmeier B, Woerter M (2019) Is this time different? How digitalization influences job creation and destruction. Res Policy 48(8):103765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2019.03.010
Bárány Z, Siegel C (2020) Biased technological change and employment reallocation. Labour Econ 67:101930. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101930
Beier G, Matthess M, Shuttleworth L, Guan T, Grudzien DIDP, Xue B et al (2022) Implications of Industry 4.0 on industrial employment: a comparative survey from Brazilian, Chinese, and German practitioners. Technol Soc 70:102028. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2022.102028
Berkers H, Smids J, Nyholm SR, Le Blanc PM (2020) Robotization and meaningful work in logistic warehouses: threats and opportunities. Gedrag Organ 33(4):324–347
Borland J, Coelli M (2017) Are robots taking our jobs? Aust Econ Rev 50(4):377–397. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12245
Boyd R, Holton RJ (2018) Technology, innovation, employment and power: does robotics and artificial intelligence really mean social transformation? J Sociol 54(3):331–345. https://doi.org/10.1177/1440783317726591
Bughin J (2023) Does artificial intelligence kill employment growth: the missing link of corporate AI posture. Front Artif Intell 6:1239466. https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2023.1239466
Cao Y, Liu J, Shao J (2023) Substitution or creation: How intelligentization affects China’s manfacturing employment. Manage Rev 35(9):37–49. https://doi.org/10.14120/j.cnki.cn11-5057/f.2023.09.022
Chen L, Li Z, Tang B (2022) Can digital skill protect against job displacement risk caused by artificial intelligence? Empirical evidence from 701 detailed occupations. PLoS ONE 17(11):e0277280. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277280
Cruz MD (2023) Labor productivity, real wages, and employment in OECD economies. Struct Change Econ Dyn 66:367–382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2023.05.007
Damioli G, Van Roy V, Vertesy D, Vivarelli M (2023) AI technologies and employment: micro evidence from the supply side. Appl Econ Lett 30(6):816–821. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2021.2024129
Dettling L (2017) Broadband in the labor market: the impact of residential high-speed Internet on married women’s labor force participation. ILR Rev 70(2):451–482. https://doi.org/10.1177/0019793916644721
Dixon J, Hong B, Wu L (2021) The robot revolution: managerial and employment consequences for firms. Manage Sci 67(9):5586–5605. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3812
Duan X, Zhang Q (2023) Industrial digitization, virtual agglomeration and total factor productivity. J Northwest Norm Univ (Soc Sci) 60(1):135–144. https://doi.org/10.16783/j.cnki.nwnus.2023.01.016
Duan SX, Deng H, Wibowo S (2023) Exploring the impact of digital work on work-life balance and job performance: a technology affordance perspective. Inf Technol People 36(5):2009–2029. https://doi.org/10.1108/ITP-01-2021-0013
Duménil G, Lévy D (2003) Technology and distribution: historical trajectories à la Marx. J Econ Behav Organ 52(2):201–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(03)00022-2
Dunn M (2020) Making gigs work: digital platforms, job quality and worker motivations. N Technol Work Employ 35(2):232–249. https://doi.org/10.1111/ntwe.12167
Eloundou T, Manning S, Mishkin P, Rock D (2023) GPTs are GPTs: an early look at the labor market impact potential of large language models. arXiv Working Paper, 2303.10130. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.10130
Fabo B, Karanovic J, Dukova K (2017) In search of an adequate European policy response to the platform economy. Transf Eur Rev Labour Res 23(2):163–175. https://doi.org/10.1177/1024258916688861
Filippi E, Bannò M, Trento S (2023) Automation technologies and the risk of substitution of women: can gender equality in the institutional context reduce the risk? Technol Forecast Soc Change 191:122528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122528
Forsythe E, Kahn LB, Lange F, Wiczer D (2022) Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery. Labour Econ 78:102251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102251
Fossen FM, Sorgner A (2022) New digital technologies and heterogeneous wage and employment dynamics in the United States: evidence from individual-level data. Technol Forecast Soc Change 175:121381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121381
Ge P, Zhao Z (2023) The rise of robots and employment change: 2009–2017. J Renmin Univ China 37(1):102–115
Gu T, Zhang S, Cai R (2022) Can artificial intelligence boost employment in service industries? Empirical analysis based on China. Appl Artif Intell 36(1):2080336. https://doi.org/10.1080/08839514.2022.2080336
Han J, Yan X, Wei N (2022) Study on regional differences of the impact of artificial intelligence on China’s employment skill structure. Northwest Popul J 43(3):45–57. https://doi.org/10.15884/j.cnki.issn.1007-0672.2022.03.004
He Y (2018) A study on the impact of artificial intelligence industry on macroeconomy: evidence from United States of America. J Bus Econ Environ Stud 8(4):37–44
Hilbert M (2011) Digital gender divide or technologically empowered women in developing countries? A typical case of lies, damned lies, and statistics. Women’s Stud Int Forum 34(6):479–489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wsif.2011.07.001
Huang M, Rust RT (2018) Artificial intelligence in service. J Serv Res 21(2):155–172. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094670517752459
International Labour Organization (2023) Generative AI and jobs: a global analysis of potential effects on job quantity and quality. https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/working-papers/WCMS_890761/lang--en/index.htm Accessed from 21 Dec 2023
Jarrahi MH (2018) Artificial intelligence and the future of work: human-AI symbiosis in organizational decision making. Bus Horiz 61(4):577–586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2018.03.007
Javed M (2023) Robots, natives and immigrants in US local labor markets. Labour Econ 85:102456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102456
Jiang T (2022) Mediating effects and moderating effects in causal inference. China Ind Econ 410(5):100–120. https://doi.org/10.19581/j.cnki.ciejournal.2022.05.005
Josifidis K, Supic N (2018) Income polarization of the US working class: an institutionalist view. J Econ Issues 52(2):498–508. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2018.1469929
Kim B (2023) Technological advances in manufacturing and their effects on sectoral employment in the Korean economy. Econ Model 126:106433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106433
Kirov V, Malamin B (2022) Are translators afraid of artificial intelligence? Societies 12(2):70. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc12020070
Li Z, Liang Z (2016) Gender and job mobility among rural to urban temporary migrants in the Pearl River Delta in China. Urban Stud 53(16):3455–4371. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015615747
Li Q, Zhang R (2022) Study on the challenges and countermeasures of coordinated development of quantity and quality of employment under the new technology-economy paradigm. J Xiangtan Univ (Philos Soc Sci) 46(5):42–45+58. https://doi.org/10.13715/j.cnki.jxupss.2022.05.019
Li Z, Hong Y, Zhang Z (2021) The empowering and competition effects of the platform-based sharing economy on the supply and demand sides of the labor market. J Manag Inf Syst 38(1):140–165. https://doi.org/10.1080/07421222.2021.1870387
Li L, Mo Y, Zhou G (2022) Platform economy and China’ s labor market: structural transformation and policy challenges. China Econ J 15(2):139–152. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2067685
Liu L (2018) Occupational therapy in the fourth industrial revolution. Can J Occup Ther 85(4):272–283. https://doi.org/10.1177/0008417418815179
Liu Y, Peng J (2023) The impact of “AI unemployment” on contemporary youth and its countermeasures. Youth Explor 241(1):43–51. https://doi.org/10.13583/j.cnki.issn1004-3780.2023.01.004
Liu N, Gu X, Lei CK (2022) The equilibrium effects of digital technology on banking, production, and employment. Financ Res Lett 49:103196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103196
Liu Y, Zhang X, Shen Y (2024) Technology-driven carbon reduction: analyzing the impact of digital technology on China’s carbon emission and its mechanism. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 200:123124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123124
Lu C (2020) Artificial intelligence and human jobs. Macroecon Dyn 26(5):1162–1201. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100520000528
Lu J, Xiao Q, Wang T (2023) Does the digital economy generate a gender dividend for female employment? Evid China Telecommun Policy 47(6):102545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2023.102545
Ma H, Gao Q, Li X, Zhang Y (2022) AI development and employment skill structure: a case study of China. Econ Anal Policy 73:242–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.11.007
Madureira A, Hartog F, Bouwman H, Baken N (2013) Empirical validation of Metcalfe’s law: How Internet usage patterns have changed over time. Inf Econ Policy 25(4):246–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2013.07.002
Mao J, Yang S (2023) Labor substitution or employment creation: does digital transformation affect the labor demand of enterprises? J Knowl Econ Early Access. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01474-8
Michau JB (2013) Creative destruction with on-the-job search. Rev Econ Dyn 16(4):691–707. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2012.10.011
Moretti E (2021) The effect of high-tech clusters on the productivity of top inventors. Am Econ Rev 111(10):3328–3375. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191277
Morgan J (2019) Will we work in twenty-first century capitalism? A critique of the fourth industrial revolution literature. Econ Soc 48(3):371–398. https://doi.org/10.1080/03085147.2019.1620027
Nam T (2019) Technology usage, expected job sustainability, and perceived job insecurity. Technol Forecast Soc Change 138:155–165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.08.017
Ndubuisi G, Otioma C, Tetteh GK (2021) Digital infrastructure and employment in services: evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries. Telecommun Policy 45(8):102153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2021.102153
Nikitas A, Vitel AE, Cotet C (2021) Autonomous vehicles and employment: an urban futures revolution or catastrophe? Cities 114:103203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2021.103203
Novella R, Rosas-Shady D, Alvarado A (2023) Are we nearly there yet? New technology adoption and labor demand in Peru. Sci Public Policy 50(4):565–578. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scad007
Oschinski A, Wyonch R. (2017) Future shock?: the impact of automation on Canada's labour market.C.D. Howe institute commentary working paper
Pianta M (2018) Technology and employment: twelve stylised facts for the digital age. Indian J Labour Econ 61:189–225. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41027-018-0124-5
Reljic J, Evangelista R, Pianta M (2021) Digital technologies, employment, and skills. Ind Corp Change. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtab059
Schultz DE (1998) The death of distance—how the communications revolution will change our lives. Int Mark Rev 15(4):309–311. https://doi.org/10.1108/imr.1998.15.4.309.1
Sharma C, Mishra RK (2023) Imports, technology, and employment: job creation or creative destruction. Manag Decis Econ 44(1):152–170. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.3671
Shen Y, Yang Z (2023) Chasing green: the synergistic effect of industrial intelligence on pollution control and carbon reduction and its mechanisms. Sustainability 15(8):6401. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086401
Shen Y, Zhang X (2023) Intelligent manufacturing, green technological innovation and environmental pollution. J Innov Knowl 8(3):100384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2023.100384
Shen Y, Yang Z, Zhang X (2023) Impact of digital technology on carbon emissions: evidence from Chinese cities. Front Ecol Evol 11:1166376. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1166376
Su C, Yuan X, Umar M, Lobon OR (2022) Does technological innovation bring destruction or creation to the labor market? Technol Soc 68:101905. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2022.101905
Sun X (2023) Research on the evolution of labor forms and employment structure in the era of intelligent economy. China Financial and Economic Publishing House, Beijing, China
Sun W, Liu Y (2023) Research on the influence mechanism of artificial intelligence on labor market. East China Econ Manag 37(3):1–9. https://doi.org/10.19629/j.cnki.34-1014/f.220706008
Tan H, Xia C (2022) Digital trade reshapes the theory and model of industrial agglomeration — from geographic agglomeration to online agglomeration. Res Financ Econ Issues 443(6):43–52. https://doi.org/10.19654/j.cnki.cjwtyj.2022.06.004
Tang J, Yang J (2014) Research on the economic impact of the hidden subsidy of sales price and reform. China Ind Econ 321(12):5–17. https://doi.org/10.19581/j.cnki.ciejournal.2014.12.001
Tschang FT, Almirall E (2021) Artificial intelligence as augmenting automation: implications for employment. Acad Manag Perspect 35(4):642–659. https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2019.0062
Tubaro P, Casilli AA, Coville M (2020) The trainer, the verifier, the imitator: three ways in which human platform workers support artificial intelligence. Big Data Soc. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053951720919776
Vivarelli M (2016) The middle income trap: a way out based on technological and structural change. Econ Chang Restruct 49:159–193. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-015-9166-6
Valentini E, Compagnucci F, Gallegati M, Gentili A (2023) Robotization, employment, and income: regional asymmetries and long-run policies in the Euro area. J Evol Econ 33:737–771. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-023-00819-5
Wang Y, Zhang Y (2022) Dual employment effect of digital economy and higher quality employment development. Expand Horiz 231(3):43–50
Wang R, Liang Q, Li G (2018) Virtual agglomeration: a new form of spatial organization with the deep integration of new generation information technology and real economy. J Manag World 34(2):13–21. https://doi.org/10.19744/j.cnki.11-1235/f.2018.02.002
Wang X, Zhu X, Wang Y (2022a) The impact of robot application on manufacturing employment. J Quant Technol Econ 39(4):88–106. https://doi.org/10.13653/j.cnki.jqte.2022.04.002
Wang Y, Zhang Y, Liu J (2022b) Digital finance and carbon emissions: an empirical test based on micro data and machine learning model. China Popul Resour Environ 32(6):1–11
Wang L, Hu S, Dong Z (2022c) Artificial intelligence technology, task attribute and occupational substitutable risk: empirical evidence from the micro-level. J Manag World 38(7):60–79. https://doi.org/10.19744/j.cnki.11-1235/f.2022.0094
Wang L, Qian Y, Song D, Dong Z (2023) The job Transition effects and employment sensitivity among specific groups of robot applications: empirical evidence for macro-individual level perspective. Econ Res J 58(7):69–85
Wen J, Liu Y (2021) Uncertainty of new employment form: digital labor in platform capital space and the reflection on it. J Zhejiang Gongshang Univ 171(6):92–106. https://doi.org/10.14134/j.cnki.cn33-1337/c.2021.06.009
Wen J, Yin HT, Jang CL, Uchida H, Chang CP (2023) Does corruption hurt green innovation? Yes – Global evidence from cross-validation. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 188:122313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122313
Wong SI, Fieseler C, Kost D (2020) Digital labourers’ proactivity and the venture for meaningful work: Fruitful or fruitless? J Occup Organ Psychol 93(4):887–911. https://doi.org/10.1111/joop.12317
Wu Q (2023) Sustainable growth through industrial robot diffusion: quasi-experimental evidence from a Bartik shift-share design. Econ Transit Inst Change Early Access. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12367
Wu S, Chen Z (2023) Bond default early warning models based on financial and non-financial information: empirical evidence from machine learning methods. J Xiamen Univ (Arts Soc Sci) 73(6):108–121. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.0438-0460.2023.06.010
Wu Y, Hao N, Ma Y (2023) The effect of digital economy development on labor employment: empirical evidence from listed companies in China. J Glob Inf Manag 31(6):321180. https://doi.org/10.4018/JGIM.321180
Xie M, Dong L, Xia Y, Guo J, Pan J, Wang H (2022) Does artificial intelligence affect the pattern of skill demand? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms. Econ Model 96:295–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.01.009
Xue M, Cao X, Feng X, Gu B, Zhang Y (2022) Is college education less necessary with AI? Evidence from firm-level labor structure changes. J Manag Inf Syst 39(3):865–905. https://doi.org/10.1080/07421222.2022.2096542
Yan X, Zhu K, Ma C (2020) Employment under robot Impact: evidence from China manufacturing. Stat Res 37(1):74–87. https://doi.org/10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2020.01.006
Yang CH (2022) How artificial intelligence technology affects productivity and employment: firm-level evidence from Taiwan. Res Policy 51(6):104536. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2022.104536
Yang Z, Shen Y (2023) The impact of intelligent manufacturing on industrial green total factor productivity and its multiple mechanisms. Front Environ Sci 10:1058664. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1058664
Yu M (2023) A historc review and contemporary examination of technological unemployment from the perspective of fixed capital. New Horiz Tianfu 42(6):94–105. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1004-0633.2023.06.011
Yu L, Liu Y (2017) Consumers’ welfare in China’ s electric power industry competition. Res Econ Manag 38(8):55–64. https://doi.org/10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2017.08.006
Zhang Y, Li X (2022) The new digital infrastructure, gig employment and spatial spillover effect. China Bus Mark 36(11):103–117. https://doi.org/10.14089/j.cnki.cn11-3664/f.2022.11.010
Zhang X, Lin F, Wang Y, Wang M (2022) The impact of digital economy on employment polarization: an analysis based on Chinese provincial panel data. Labor Hist 63(5):636–651. https://doi.org/10.1080/0023656X.2022.2133101
Zhao L, Zhao X (2017) Is AI endangering human job opportunities?—From a perspective of marxism. J Hebei Univ Econ Bus 38(6):17–22. https://doi.org/10.14178/j.cnki.issn1007-2101.2017.06.004
Zhou S, Chen B (2022) Robots and industrial employment: based on the perspective of subtask model. Stat Decis 38(23):85–89. https://doi.org/10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2022.23.016
Zhou G, Chu G, Li L, Meng L (2019) The effect of artificial intelligence on China’s labor market. China Econ J 13(1):24–41. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1681201
Zurdo PR, Dopacio CI, Paredes VR (2022) Social sustainability and employment as a challenge of digital transformation: the new sixth digital sector of the economy. REVESCO-Rev Estudios Coop 142:e83719. https://doi.org/10.5209/REVE.83719
Funding
This work was financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (Grant number: 2022J01320).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Shen, Y. Future jobs: analyzing the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and its mechanisms. Econ Change Restruct 57, 34 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-024-09629-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-024-09629-6