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The influence of ocean warming on the natural mortality of marine fishes

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Abstract

Climate change is anticipated to have multiple consequences for aquatic ectotherms. Warming temperatures, for example, are predicted to reduce body size in many fish species. Smaller sizes may be caused by physiological constraints associated with respiration, life-history responses to faster growth and concomitant earlier age at maturity, and interactive effects of fishing and climate change on evolution. Here, using a phylogenetically broad dataset of 100 marine species, we explore how natural mortality might respond to a 10% reduction in asymptotic length (L∞). We find that this decrease in size (predicted to be associated with a 1 °C ocean temperature increase) is likely to exacerbate natural mortality (M) for most marine fishes, albeit not all, on Canada’s Scotian Shelf. Across all bony fishes (Actinopterygii), the median proportional increase in natural mortality is 10.5%; limited data suggest that chondrichthyans are less affected. Smaller-bodied fish species experienced greater absolute increases in M than larger-bodied species. Among commercially exploited species for which sufficient data are available, M is predicted to increase by 0.14 for Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), 0.08 for Silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis), 0.04 for Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), and 0.02 for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Pollock (Pollachias virens). The present study offers a simple means of exploring the mortality consequences of reduced body size hypothesized to result from globally warming water temperatures, thus contributing a potential tool for climate-change vulnerability assessments of marine fishes.

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Data Availability

All data are either published in the manuscript or can be accessed at https://fishbase.mnhn.fr.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Nancy Shackell and Mike McMahon for assistance in accessing the marine fish species data for the Scotian Shelf. Patrick White’s acquisition of data from FishBase was immensely helpful. Daniel Pauly, Sarah Yakimowski, and two anonymous referees provided constructive and thoughtful feedback on earlier versions of the manuscript.

Funding

Support was received by a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Discovery Grant to J.A.H.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, Queen’s University, 116 Barrie Street, Kingston, ON, K7L 3N6, Canada

    Paige E. L. Levangie & Paul J. Blanchfield

  2. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2N6, Canada

    Paul J. Blanchfield

  3. Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada

    Jeffrey A. Hutchings

  4. Institute of Marine Research, Flødevigen Marine Research Station, N-4817, His, Norway

    Jeffrey A. Hutchings

  5. Centre for Coastal Research, University of Agder, N-4604, Kristiansand, Norway

    Jeffrey A. Hutchings

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  1. Paige E. L. Levangie
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Contributions

The study was conceived and designed by J.A.H. in consultation with all co-authors. Data analyses were conducted by P.E.L.L. and J.A.H. All authors contributed to the writing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jeffrey A. Hutchings.

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Given that all analyses were undertaken on existing quantitative data, the collection of which was under the auspices of Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans, ethics approval was not required to be obtained by the authors.

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All authors participated in this study and consent to its publication.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Levangie, P.E.L., Blanchfield, P.J. & Hutchings, J.A. The influence of ocean warming on the natural mortality of marine fishes. Environ Biol Fish 105, 1447–1461 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-021-01161-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-021-01161-0

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