Abstract
Population vital rates, such as stage-specific survival, are influenced by individual behavior and movement patterns. Yet few methods exist to incorporate behavior into predator-prey models, omitting a potentially important source of variability in population dynamics. Here were combine results from an acoustic telemetry study of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with an existing predator prey model, called the mean free-path length model, originally presented in Anderson et al. (2005). The model describes the probability of predator-prey encounters as a function of the predator density and the movement patterns of predators and prey. Greater predator densities and greater variation in movement vectors should result in higher predator-prey encounter rates, and lower survival for the prey. Fitting this model to data provides insight into mechanisms of mortality for migrating fishes. Here we estimate model parameters for two flow conditions in the Sacramento River, California, examining the importance of natural environmental variation in shaping encounters and prey survival. Survival estimates were similar between the high and low flow conditions, yet travel time was slower at lower flows. The model estimates of mean free-path length were lower when compared to those estimated in the Snake River system, corresponding with lower survival. We discuss the value of model parameters estimated from telemetry data in providing a tool for forecasting population-level responses to structural or hydrodynamic modifications in large river systems, and we explore how the XT model can provide insight into nonlinear and threshold-like responses of migratory fish survival to flow.
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Original datasets and code used in this analysis will be made available upon request.
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Acknowledgements
We thank M. Fong, M. Guidry, B. Luke, N. McNair, and G. Singer for assistance with field work. Thanks are also given to A.P. Klimley for his advice during preparation of this manuscript. This research was funded as part of the Sacramento River Bank Protection Project, through the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento District. Additional support for J.J.A. was provided by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
Funding
Funding to collect the data used in this study was provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento District, along with partial funding for the writing of the manuscript.
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B.M., A.S., and D.S. oversaw and assisted in data collection. D.S. conceived the original idea. A.S. conducted the data processing, analysis, and drafted the manuscript. J.A. provided extensive review of and additions to the manuscript. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript.
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Supplementary Information
ESM 1
Includes methods and results of a sensitivity analysis intended to evaluate the effect of reach definition on model parameter estimates (PDF 221 kb)
Appendices
Appendix 1
Six groups of acoustically tagged Chinook salmon were released into the Sacramento River, California across two study years. Fish tracks were truncated if movement patterns indicated predation of tagged smolt; detections after initiation of a prolonged upstream movement (>1 km) were removed. Long-term environmental data obtained from monitoring gauges located above study reach, termed ‘Colusa’ (39.214°N, −122.000°W), and within study reach below confluence with Feather River, termed ‘Verona’ (38.774°N, − 121.598°W). Release groups were classified into a high flow group if the mean discharge at Verona upon release was >400 m3/s. Water temperature was recorded at Verona.
Water Year | Release group | Flow group | Release date | Mean discharge (m3/s) @ Colusa | Mean discharge (m3/s) @ Verona | Mean water temp. (°C) | N release | N alive at Gate 1 | N truncated tracks |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 1 | High | 12/20/2012 | 331.3 | 662.6 | 8.2 | 94 | 76 | 0 |
2 | High | 1/10/2013 | 288.8 | 552.2 | 7.9 | 100 | 99 | 0 | |
3 | High | 1/30/2013 | 269.0 | 484.2 | 9.1 | 100 | 97 | 1 | |
4 | Low | 3/6/2013 | 181.8 | 305.8 | 12.3 | 100 | 94 | 2 | |
5 | Low | 3/27/2013 | 181.2 | 331.3 | 15.0 | 108 | 107 | 15 | |
6 | Low | 3/28/2013 | 179.0 | 322.8 | 15.7 | 102 | 100 | 27 | |
2014 | 1 | High | 2/12/2014 | 258.8 | 628.6 | 12.3 | 150 | 148 | 31 |
2 | High | 2/13/2014 | 201.0 | 484.2 | 12.9 | 150 | 146 | 37 | |
3 | Low | 2/25/2014 | 111.3 | 119.6 | 14.3 | 150 | 148 | 22 | |
4 | Low | 2/26/2014 | 111.6 | 119.1 | 14.0 | 150 | 143 | 12 |
Appendix 2
Survival of telemetered juvenile Chinook salmon (Table 3), and detection efficiency of acoustic receiver gates (Table 4), and associated standard errors. Salmon were released in multiple groups 6.2 km upstream of the initial receiver gate (Gate 1). Boldface indicates detection efficiency below 0.90.
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Steel, A.E., Anderson, J.J., Mulvey, B. et al. Applying the mean free-path length model to juvenile Chinook salmon migrating in the Sacramento River, California. Environ Biol Fish 103, 1603–1617 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-020-01046-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-020-01046-8