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Developing a set of indicators to identify, monitor, and track impacts and change in forests of the United States

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Abstract

United States forestland is an important ecosystem type, land cover, land use, and economic resource that is facing several drivers of change including climatic. Because of its significance, forestland was identified through the National Climate Assessment (NCA) as a key sector and system of concern to be included in a system of climate indicators as part of a sustained assessment effort. Here, we describe 11 informative core indicators of forests and climate change impacts with metrics available or nearly available for use in the NCA efforts. The recommended indicators are based on a comprehensive conceptual model which recognizes forests as a land use, an ecosystem, and an economic sector. The indicators cover major forest attributes such as extent, structural components such as biomass, functions such as growth and productivity, and ecosystem services such as biodiversity and outdoor recreation. Interactions between humans and forests are represented through indicators focused on the wildland-urban interface, cost to mitigate wildfire risk, and energy produced from forest-based biomass. Selected indicators also include drought and disturbance from both wildfires and biotic agents. The forest indicators presented are an initial set that will need further refinement in coordination with other NCA indicator teams. Our effort ideally will initiate the collection of critical measurements and observations and lead to additional research on forest-climate indicators.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the support provided by A.C. Janetos, chair of the Indicator Work Group under the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC), and M.A. Kenney, director of the Indicator Research Team. Kenney's research team provided research and coordination support to the technical team, which was supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration grant NA09NES4400006 and NA14NES4320003 (Cooperative Climate and Satellites-CICS) at the University of Maryland/ESSIC. Members of the Indicators Technical Teams, NCADAC Indicator Work Group, and Kenney's NCIS research team are included in Kenney et al. (2014). The authors also wish to recognize contributions to Heath et al. (2015), which formed the foundation for this article: Andrzej Bytnerowicz (USFS, Pacific Southwest Station), Sarah Jovan (USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station), Miranda Mockrin (USFS, Rocky Mountain Research Station), Robert Musselman (USFS, Rocky Mountain Research Station), Bethany K. Schulz (USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station), Robert J. Smith (Oregon State University), Susan I. Stewart (University of Wisconsin).

Funding

M.A. Kenney, director of the Indicator Research Team, provided research and coordination support to the technical team, which was supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration grant NA09NES4400006 and NA14NES4320003 (Cooperative Climate and Satellites-CICS) at the University of Maryland/ESSIC. S.M. Anderson was supported by National Science Foundation grant 0903714 for most of the time spent working on this project.

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Author notes

  1. Sarah M. Anderson & Linda S. Heath

    Present address: U.S. Forest Service, Washington, DC, 20250, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Biological Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, 99164, USA

    Sarah M. Anderson

  2. U.S. Forest Service, Washington, DC, 20250, USA

    Guy Robertson

  3. Northern Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Durham, NH, 03823, USA

    Linda S. Heath

  4. Northern Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Burlington, VT, 05405, USA

    Marla R. Emery

  5. Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, 83844, USA

    Jeffrey A. Hicke

  6. U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center, Anchorage, AK, 99508, USA

    Jeremy S. Littell

  7. National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc., Cary, NC, 27511, USA

    Alan Lucier

  8. Goddard Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Jeffrey G. Masek

  9. School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

    David L. Peterson

  10. Emeritus U.S. Forest Service, NRS, Affiliate Faculty Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, 19716, USA

    Richard Pouyat

  11. Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27709, USA

    Kevin M. Potter

  12. U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Champaign, IL, 61826, USA

    Jinelle Sperry

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  1. Sarah M. Anderson
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Contributions

All authors contributed to conceptualization, analysis of datasets, literature, writing, and critical review of the manuscript. Anderson was responsible for primary writing of the article, conceptualizing the conceptual model, and synthesizing input from all team members. Heath was responsible for conceptualization of the whole project and supervised design. Team members also contributed to specific indicators: Heath (Forestland Area and Extent, Forest Biomass and Density, Forest Growth and Productivity, Wildfire Effects, and Outdoor Recreation), Emery (indicators identified as research needs), Hicke (Forest Insect and Disease Damage), Littell (Water Balance Deficit), Lucier (Forestland Area and Extent), Masek (Forest Growth and Productivity), Peterson (Wildfire Effects), Pouyat (conceptual model, coordination with other technical teams), Potter (Diversity/Abundance of Forest-associated Floral Species), Robertson (Cost to Mitigate Wildfire Risk, Energy Produced from Forest-based Biomass), and Sperry (Diversity/Abundance of Forest-associated Faunal Species).

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Correspondence to Sarah M. Anderson.

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This article is part of a topical collection on “National Indicators of Climate Changes, Impacts, and Vulnerability” edited by Anthony C. Janetos and Melissa A. Kenney.

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Anderson, S.M., Heath, L.S., Emery, M.R. et al. Developing a set of indicators to identify, monitor, and track impacts and change in forests of the United States. Climatic Change 165, 13 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02993-6

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