Abstract
Species distribution models (SDM) have been proposed as valuable first screening tools for predicting species responses to new environmental conditions. SDMs are usually conducted at the species level, assuming that species-environment relationships are a species-specific feature that do not evolve and show no variability across a species’ range. However, broad environmental tolerances at the species level can encompass narrower and different environmental tolerances for specific lineages or populations. In this study, we evaluate whether SDMs that account for within-taxon niche variation in climate and human-habitat associations provide better fits between projected distributions and real occurrence data for alien bird species than species-level SDMs. Our study focuses on eight alien bird species with established alien populations for which detailed phylogeographic information was available. Similarity in climates and human disturbance conditions occupied by different phylogenetic groups within species was low and not greater than random expectations. Accounting for intraspecific niche variation in SDMs modified the distribution and extent of suitable habitat predicted as susceptible to invasion, but did not result in more accurate model predictions in alien ranges. Until more accurate information on intraspecific variability is available, species-level models can be reasonable candidates. When phylogeographic information is available, the use of the most conservative criterion (i.e. to model both species and lineages on the basis of the actual range) is recommended.
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Data availability
All data used in this manuscript have already been published or archived and can be accessible via Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4234850, (Dyer et al. 2016) GBIF.org (2018—for a complete list of GBIF occurrence downloads see Table S1), WorldClim database (Hijmans et al. 2005) available for download from http://www.worldclim.org, BirdLife International & NatureServe (2014) available for download from http://datazone.birdlife.org/species/requestdis and terrestrial ecoregions of the world (Olson et al. 2001) available for download from http://www.worldwildlife.org/publications/terrestrial-ecoregions-of-the-world. Data on geographic extent and accuracy of model projections derived from this article is accessible via Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16697881.
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Code associated with this manuscript is accessible via Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16697881.
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Acknowledgements
We thank all authors and observers who contributed to the datasets on species distributions and phylogeographic patterns, without which this study could not have been possible. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 752149. L.C. also received funding from the Beatriu de Pinós fellowship program (funded by the Catalan Government and EU COFUND program nº 801370). PA is funded by ‘V Plan Propio de Investigación’ of the Universidad de Sevilla (Spain). The authors acknowledge the use of the UCL Myriad High Performance Computing Facility (Myriad@UCL), and associated support services, in the completion of this work.
Funding
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 752149. L.C. also received funding from the Beatriu de Pinós fellowship program (funded by the Catalan Government and EU COFUND program nº 801370). PA is funded by ‘V Plan Propio de Investigación’ of the Universidad de Sevilla (Spain).
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Cardador, L., Abellán, P. & Blackburn, T.M. Incorporating phylogeographic information in alien bird distribution models increases geographic extent but not accuracy of predictions. Biol Invasions 24, 683–695 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-021-02673-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-021-02673-7