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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in SE-Spain based on macroseismic site histories

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Abstract

In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.

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Acknowledgments

This research was developed in the framework of the European project UPStrat-MAFA (Grant Agreement 230301/2011/613486/SUB/A5). Part of the work was supported by the Spanish projects CGL2007-62454, CGL2010-11831-E and the CSIC-FCT Joint Project 2009PT0053. We used the Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) version 5.1.1 by Wessel et al. (2013) for the maps. The authors are grateful for the helpful comments and suggestions from the reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. IGEO (CSIC, UCM), Madrid, Spain

    Maria-Jose Jiménez & Mariano García-Fernández

  2. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Siena, Siena, Italy

    Dario Albarello

Authors
  1. Maria-Jose Jiménez
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  2. Dario Albarello
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  3. Mariano García-Fernández
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Correspondence to Mariano García-Fernández.

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Jiménez, MJ., Albarello, D. & García-Fernández, M. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in SE-Spain based on macroseismic site histories. Bull Earthquake Eng 14, 1849–1867 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9784-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9784-4

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