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Environmental variables and their interaction effects on chlorophyll-a in coastal waters of the southern Caspian Sea: assessment by multiple regression grey models

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Abstract

Main and interaction effects of environmental parameters on variations of chlorophyll-a along the coast of the southern Caspian Sea were determined. Parameters such as temperature, conductivity, turbidity salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, chlorophyll-a and nutrients were evaluated monthly in four transects and different depths (0, 5, 10, 20, 35 and 50 m), using multiple regression and grey relational analysis. Additionally, the long-term data (1994–2009) on the seasonal phytoplanktonic variation were included in our discussion. There was a good agreement between the observed and predicted values in the models that included the interaction effects during spring, summer, autumn and winter, with the adjusted R 2 of 0.64, 0.63, 0.60 and 0.54, respectively. Temperature and its interactions were found to be the most important factor on chlorophyll-a throughout the year. Overall, the most effective factors were seasonally categorized as: organic phosphorus, ammonium and their interactions (spring); organic phosphorus, nitrate, DO, silica and their interactions (summer); organic phosphorus, pH, DO and their interactions (autumn); pH, ammonium, DO and their interactions (winter). Thermocline, riverine transport, nitrification and the presence of Mnemiopsis leidyi and Cyanophyta were found to be the most important phenomena affecting the dynamics of nutrients and phytoplanktonic biomass in the area. In the distribution of chlorophyll-a, the interaction effects of different environmental parameters proved to be more important than their individual effects. The multiple regression and grey analyses were also found to be useful tools to understand the interactions between phytoplankton and environmental factors.

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Acknowledgments

This study was funded by Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. The authors are grateful to Dr A. Roohi, Dr A. V. Leonov, Dr K. K. Balachandran and Dr M. Gholamalifard for their helpful assistance. The authors sincerely acknowledge the management of the Iranian Fisheries Research Organization (IFRO), Iranian National Institute for Oceanography (INIO) and Geological Survey of Iran for providing facilities to carry out the work. We would also like to acknowledge the reviewers of the paper for their constructive comments that have helped, improved the quality of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Fisheries, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Nour, Mazandaran, Iran

    Nemat Mahmoudi

  2. Department of Health and Aquatic Diseases, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Mohammad Reza Ahmadi

  3. Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran

    Manoochehr Babanezhad

  4. Department of Marine Biology, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, 46417-76489, Nour, Iran

    Jafar Seyfabadi

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  1. Nemat Mahmoudi
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  2. Mohammad Reza Ahmadi
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  3. Manoochehr Babanezhad
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  4. Jafar Seyfabadi
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Correspondence to Jafar Seyfabadi.

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Mahmoudi, N., Ahmadi, M.R., Babanezhad, M. et al. Environmental variables and their interaction effects on chlorophyll-a in coastal waters of the southern Caspian Sea: assessment by multiple regression grey models. Aquat Ecol 48, 351–365 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10452-014-9489-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10452-014-9489-9

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