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International trends in esophageal cancer incidence rates by histological subtype (1990–2012) and prediction of the rates to 2030

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Abstract

Background

We provide an up-to-date overview of recent international trends (1990–2012) and predicted trends (2013–2030) in the incidence rates of esophageal cancer.

Methods

We used data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus) database that contains annual incidence data by cancer site, age, and sex as well as corresponding populations. The age-standardized esophageal cancer incidence rates of each country were calculated and plotted from 1990 through 2012 and were predicted to 2030 using a Bayesian age–period–cohort model.

Results

Globally, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) showed opposing trends between 1990 and 2012; ESCC showed a decreasing trend, with an AAPC of − 1.5 (95% CI − 2.4, − 0.7), yet EAC showed an increasing trend, with an AAPC of 5.2 (95% CI 4.2, 6.2). The increasing trend in EAC was commonly observed in high-income countries. The predicted trend to 2030 indicated that most countries will continue to experience a decreasing trend or a stable trend in esophageal cancer incidence, except Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK, where the overall esophageal cancer incidence rates, mainly driven by EAC, are predicted to increase.

Conclusions

Decreasing trends in ESCC have been observed worldwide in both low- and middle-income countries and high-income countries, which may have been offset by increasing trends in EAC in high-income countries. The changing patterns of these two main subtypes of esophageal cancer may call for interventions, especially innovative interventions, to address obesity, GERD, and Barrett's esophagus.

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Data availability

The data supporting the results in this article will be made available in CI5plus database at https://ci5.iarc.fr/CI5plus/Pages/download.aspx.

Abbreviations

AAPC:

Average annual percent change

ASR:

Age-standardized rates

BAPC:

Bayesian age–period–cohort

ESCC:

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

EAC:

Esophageal adenocarcinoma

HDI:

Human Development Index

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Acknowledgements

We highly appreciate the works by the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the International Association of Cancer Registries.

Funding

This study was funded by grants from the Mega-Project of National Science and Technology for the 13th Five-Year Plan of China (2018ZX10715013-003–003) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71904170).

Author information

Author notes

  1. Yushi Lin, Hong-liang Wang and Kailu Fang contributed equally.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China

    Yushi Lin, Kailu Fang & Jie Wu

  2. Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Interventional Treatment Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China

    Hong-liang Wang

  3. Department of General Practice, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China

    Yang Zheng

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  1. Yushi Lin
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  2. Hong-liang Wang
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  4. Yang Zheng
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Contributions

Conception and design: JW, YL. Financial support: JW. Administrative support: H-lW. Collection and assembly of data: H-lW, KF. Data analysis and interpretation: YL, KF, YZ. Manuscript writing: JW, YL. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jie Wu.

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This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Lin, Y., Wang, Hl., Fang, K. et al. International trends in esophageal cancer incidence rates by histological subtype (1990–2012) and prediction of the rates to 2030. Esophagus 19, 560–568 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10388-022-00927-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10388-022-00927-4

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