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A new insight for monitoring ungulates: density surface modelling of roe deer in a Mediterranean habitat

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Abstract

Ungulates are especially difficult to monitor, and population estimates are challenging to obtain; nevertheless, such information is fundamental for effective management. This is particularly important for expanding species such as roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), whose populations dramatically increased in number and geographic distribution over the last decades. In an attempt to follow population trends and assess species ecology, important methodological advances were recently achieved by combining line or point sampling with geographic information systems (GIS). In this study, we combined density surface modelling (DSM) with line transect survey to predict roe deer density in northeastern Portugal. This was based on modelling pellet group counts as a function of environmental factors while taking into account the probability of detecting pellets and conversion factors to relate pellet density to animal density. We estimated a global density of 3.01 animals/100 ha (95 % CI 0.37–3.51) with a 32.82 % CV. Roe deer densities increased with increasing distance to roads as well as with higher percentage of cover areas and decreased with increasing distance to human populations. This recently developed spatial method can be advantageous to predict density over space through the identification of key factors influencing species abundance. Furthermore, surface maps for subset areas will enable to visually depict abundance distribution of wild populations. This will enable the assessment of areas where ungulate impacts should be minimized, allowing an adaptive management through time.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to all the people who provided valuable assistance in the field. Likewise, several institutions provided invaluable support: Nature and Forestry Conservation Institute and especially Núcleo Florestal de Bragança. We would like to thank the University of Aveiro (Department of Biology) and FCT/MEC for the financial support to CESAM RU (UID/AMB/50017) through national funds and, where applicable, co-financed by the FEDER, within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement. TAM is partially funded by FCT, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UID/MAT/00006/2013.

Funding

This study was co-supported by the University of Aveiro (Department of Biology) and FCT/MEC financially supporting CESAM RU (UID/AMB/50017) through national funds and, where applicable, co-financed by the FEDER, within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement. TAM is partially funded by FCT, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UID/MAT/00006/2013. We thank the anonymous reviewers for constructive comments on the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Biologia and CESAM, Universidade de Aveiro, Campus de Santiago, 3810-193, Aveiro, Portugal

    Ana M. Valente, Carlos Fonseca & Rita Tinoco Torres

  2. Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, The Observatory, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 9LZ, Scotland

    Tiago A. Marques

  3. Centro de Estatística e Aplicações da Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Bloco C6 - Piso 4, Campo Grande, 1749-016, Lisboa, Portugal

    Tiago A. Marques

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  1. Ana M. Valente
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Correspondence to Rita Tinoco Torres.

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Valente, A.M., Marques, T.A., Fonseca, C. et al. A new insight for monitoring ungulates: density surface modelling of roe deer in a Mediterranean habitat. Eur J Wildl Res 62, 577–587 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10344-016-1030-0

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