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Long-term estimation of plastic material resources from end-of-life vehicles in China: a scenario analysis considering multiple industry standards

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Abstract

The recycling and treatment of plastic waste become an increasingly serious environmental degradation challenge. To promote the recycling of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs), it is essential to estimate the scale of total plastic materials. This paper mainly contributes to a long-term estimation of overall plastic materials from ELVs in China. It focused on the estimation of the plastic materials from ELVs up to year of 2030, and a scenario analysis considering the recycling rate standard and light-weighting technology was performed. The results show that the total ELVs in 2030 will reach 28.54 million, which is 2.7 times the total in 2020. Under the scenario with a high standard of recycling rate (over 90%) and an exponentially growing share of plastic contents in passenger cars, the total plastic materials may reach 4.88 mt (approximately 35.70–36.56 billion yuan) in 2030. The paper provides important insights to vehicle producers by suggesting deploying more plastic materials, especially the re-use of recycled plastics, in the design and production of new products; as well as to recycling policymakers by suggesting enhancing the regulation of vehicle recycling to ensure the potential supply of all recyclable materials from ELVs including plastics.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express the sincere thanks to the National Natural Science Foundation of China for financing this research with the project “Green Development of Automobile Industry based on Extended Producer Responsibility: International Experience and Chinese strategy” (No. 71804195).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Wu Caimin

  2. Department of Business Management, Neijiang Vocational and Technical College, Neijiang, 641199, China

    Wu Caimin

  3. School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, 430073, China

    Li Yang, Liu Yanhui & Huang Shiyu

  4. Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, Nagoya, 464860, Japan

    Zhang Yifeng

  5. Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Waseda University, Tokyo, 1698050, Japan

    Ju Yiyi

  6. Institute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 1130033, Japan

    Ju Yiyi

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  1. Wu Caimin
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  2. Li Yang
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  4. Liu Yanhui
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Correspondence to Li Yang or Ju Yiyi.

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Wu, C., Li, Y., Zhang, Y. et al. Long-term estimation of plastic material resources from end-of-life vehicles in China: a scenario analysis considering multiple industry standards. J Mater Cycles Waste Manag 24, 1083–1094 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10163-022-01380-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10163-022-01380-2

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