Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Recent patterns of production for the main cereal grains: implications for food security in China

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Regional Environmental Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

China’s large population and deteriorating environment have created great concern related to the sustainability of food production, especially since details related to this topic remain poorly studied. Thus, an integrated analysis of both crop yield and cultivated area is essential for gaining a better understanding of cereal grain production in China and for making corresponding policies designed to achieve food security. In this study, we adopt trend analysis of both provincial yield and cultivated area to assess the subsequent provincial-level cereal production sustainability between 1980 and 2011 with the goal of providing a better understanding of regional agricultural development. The results indicate that while maize shows the most promise for yield improvement, rice and wheat production is experiencing substantial yield stagnation among most provinces across mainland China. In addition, the trends in spatial patterns are prominently different from those of yields. The sizes of the main rice- and wheat-growing areas in China have declined greatly, suggesting that the related production of these cereals should attract more attention from land management planners and farmers. Specifically, the south-eastern coastal provinces have largely failed to sustain both crop yield and area, while the north-eastern provinces have witnessed thriving agricultural production during the last three decades. Moreover, we find that cereal production in China is significantly affected by governmental policies related to the agricultural sector. Thus, this analysis of food production in China will help policymakers to better understand how the potential implications of food security in China may be applicable to countries worldwide.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aiking H, de Boer J (2004) Food sustainability: diverging interpretations. Br Food J 106:359–365. doi:10.1108/00070700410531589

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. Autom Control IEEE Trans 19:716–723. doi:10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Asselen S, Verburg PH (2012) A Land System representation for global assessments and land-use modeling. Glob Change Biol 18:3125–3148. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02759.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cassman KG (1999) Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture. Proc Natl Acad Sci 96:5952–5959. doi:10.1073/pnas.96.11.5952

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chavez E, Conway G, Ghil M, Sadler M (2015) An end-to-end assessment of extreme weather impacts on food security. Nat Climate Change 5:997. doi:10.1038/Nclimate2747

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen J (2007) Rapid urbanization in China: a real challenge to soil protection and food security. Catena 69:1–15. doi:10.1016/j.catena.2006.04.019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen C, Lei C, Deng A, Qian C, Hoogmoed W, Zhang W (2011) Will higher minimum temperatures increase corn production in Northeast China? An analysis of historical data over 1965–2008. Agric For Meteorol 151:1580–1588. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.013

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng X, Shan L, Zhang H, Turner NC (2006) Improving agricultural water use efficiency in arid and semiarid areas of China. Agric Water Manag 80:23–40. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2005.07.021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan X-M, Kang MS, Chen H, Zhang Y, Tan J, Xu C (2007) Yield stability of maize hybrids evaluated in multi-environment trials in Yunnan, China. Agron J 99:220–228. doi:10.2134/agronj2006.0144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (1996) Declaration on world food security. FAO, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2013) FAOSTAT. http://faostat3.fao.org/home/index.html. Accessed 18 April 2014

  • Fisher G, Shah M, Nachtergaele F et al (2001) Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century. IIASA and FAO, Laxenburg, Austria

    Google Scholar 

  • Foley JA, Ramankutty N, Brauman KA, Cassidy ES, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Mueller ND, O’Connell C, Ray DK, West PC (2011) Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478:337–342. doi:10.1038/nature10452

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir JF, Pretty J, Robinson S, Thomas SM, Toulmin C (2010) Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327:812–818. doi:10.1126/science.1185383

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gregory PJ, Ingram JS, Brklacich M (2005) Climate change and food security. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 360:2139–2148. doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1745

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Guo J, Liu X, Zhang Y, Shen J, Han W, Zhang W, Christie P, Goulding K, Vitousek P, Zhang F (2010) Significant acidification in major Chinese croplands. Science 327:1008–1010. doi:10.1126/science.1182570

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • He J, Li H, Rasaily RG, Wang Q, Cai G, Su Y, Qiao X, Liu L (2011) Soil properties and crop yields after 11 years of no tillage farming in wheat–maize cropping system in North China Plain. Soil Tillage Res 113:48–54. doi:10.1016/j.still.2011.01.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang J, Liu Y, Martin W, Rozelle S (2009) Changes in trade and domestic distortions affecting China’s agriculture. Food Policy 34:407–416. doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2009.04.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang M, Zou Y, Jiang P, Xia B, Xiao A (2012) Performance of super hybrid rice cultivars grown under no-tillage and direct seeding. Scientia Agricola 69:103–107. doi:10.1590/S0103-90162012000200003

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiao J (2013) China Food Security Report. Caijing Magazine 377

  • Ju X, Xing G, Chen X, Zhang S, Zhang L, Liu X, Cui Z, Yin B, Christie P, Zhu Z (2009) Reducing environmental risk by improving N management in intensive Chinese agricultural systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:3041–3046. doi:10.1073/pnas.0813417106

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Katsura K, Maeda S, Lubis I, Horie T, Cao W, Shiraiwa T (2008) The high yield of irrigated rice in Yunnan, China:‘a cross-location analysis’. Field Crops Res 107:1–11. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2007.12.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kijne JW, Barker R, Molden DJ (2003) Water productivity in agriculture: limits and opportunities for improvement, vol 1. CABI, UK

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Krausmann F, Gingrich S, Haberl H, Erb K-H, Musel A, Kastner T, Kohlheb N, Niedertscheider M, Schwarzlmüller E (2012) Long-term trajectories of the human appropriation of net primary production: lessons from six national case studies. Ecol Econ 77:129–138. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krausmann F, Erb K-H, Gingrich S, Haberl H, Bondeau A, Gaube V, Lauk C, Plutzar C, Searchinger TD (2013) Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:10324–10329. doi:10.1073/pnas.1211349110

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lai JS, Li RQ, Xu X, Jin WW, Xu ML, Zhao HN, Xiang ZK, Song WB, Ying K, Zhang M, Jiao YP, Ni PX, Zhang JG, Li D, Guo XS, Ye KX, Jian M, Wang B, Zheng HS, Liang HQ, Zhang XQ, Wang SC, Chen SJ, Li JS, Fu Y, Springer NM, Yang HM, Wang JA, Dai JR, Schnable PS, Wang J (2010) Genome-wide patterns of genetic variation among elite maize inbred lines. Nat Genet 42:1027–1030. doi:10.1038/ng.684

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lal R (2004) Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security. Science 304:1623–1627. doi:10.1126/science.1097396

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lambin EF, Turner BL, Geist HJ, Agbola SB, Angelsen A, Bruce JW, Coomes OT, Dirzo R, Fischer G, Folke C, George PS, Homewood K, Imbernon J, Leemans R, Li XB, Moran EF, Mortimore M, Ramakrishnan PS, Richards JF, Skanes H, Steffen W, Stone GD, Svedin U, Veldkamp TA, Vogel C, Xu JC (2001) The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths. Glob Environ Chang 11:261–269. doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00007-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lambin EF, Geist HJ, Lepers E (2003) Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions. Annu Rev Environ Resour 28:205–241. doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105459

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lichtenberg E, Ding C (2008) Assessing farmland protection policy in China. Land Use Policy 25:59–68. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2006.01.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Licker R, Johnston M, Foley JA, Barford C, Kucharik CJ, Monfreda C, Ramankutty N (2010) Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the ‘yield gap’of croplands around the world? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 19:769–782. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00563.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin JY (1997) Institutional reforms and dynamics of agricultural growth in China. Food Policy 22:201–212. doi:10.1016/S0306-9192(97)00009-2

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lin SC, Yuan LP (1980) Hybrid rice breeding in China. In: Innovative approaches to rice breeding: Selected papers form the 1979 International Rice Research Conference. International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines, 1980. pp 35–51

  • Liu J, Liu M, Zhuang D, Zhang Z, Deng X (2003a) Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995–2000. Sci China, Ser D Earth Sci 46:373–384. doi:10.1360/03yd9033

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Ju X, Zhang F, Pan J, Christie P (2003b) Nitrogen dynamics and budgets in a winter wheat–maize cropping system in the North China Plain. Field Crops Res 83:111–124. doi:10.1016/S0378-4290(03)00068-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Tian H, Liu M, Zhuang D, Melillo JM, Zhang Z (2005) China’s changing landscape during the 1990s: Large–scale land transformations estimated with satellite data. Geophysical Research Letters 32. doi: 10.1029/2004gl021649

  • Liu J, Lundqvist J, Weinberg J, Gustafsson J (2013) Food losses and waste in China and their implication for water and land. Environ Sci Technol 47:10137–10144. doi:10.1021/es401426b

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Field CB (2007) Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ Res Lett 2:014002. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Cassman KG, Field CB (2009) Crop yield gaps: their importance, magnitudes, and causes. Annu Rev Environ Resour 34:179. doi:10.1146/annurev.environ.041008.093740

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mellor JW, Johnston BF (1984) The world food equation: interrelations among development, employment, and food consumption. J Econ Lit 22:531–574

    Google Scholar 

  • Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, Foley JA (2008) Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 22. doi:10.1029/2007GB002947

  • Mueller ND, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Foley JA (2012) Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature 490:254–257. doi:10.1038/nature11420

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • National Bureau of Statistics of China (1980–2011) China Statistical Yearbook. China Statistic Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Parry ML, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G (2004) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14:53–67. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng S, Cassman KG, Virmani S, Sheehy J, Khush G (1999) Yield potential trends of tropical rice since the release of IR8 and the challenge of increasing rice yield potential. Crop Sci 39:1552–1559. doi:10.2135/cropsci1999.3961552x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y, Ding Y (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–51. doi:10.1038/nature09364

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pinstrup-Andersen P (2009) Food security: definition and measurement. Food Secur 1:5–7. doi:10.1007/s12571-008-0002-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pretty J (2008) Agricultural sustainability: concepts, principles and evidence. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 363:447–465. doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.2163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qin Y, Liu J, Shi W, Tao F, Yan H (2013) Spatial-temporal changes of cropland and climate potential productivity in northern China during 1990–2010. Food Secur 5:499–512. doi:10.1007/s12571-013-0280-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2012) Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nature Commun 3:1293. doi:10.1038/ncomms2296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ray DK, Gerber JS, MacDonald GK, West PC (2015) Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nature Commun 6:5989. doi:10.1038/ncomms6989

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rockström J, Steffen W, Noone K, Persson A, Chapin FS 3rd, Lambin EF, Lenton TM, Scheffer M, Folke C, Schellnhuber HJ, Nykvist B, de Wit CA, Hughes T, van der Leeuw S, Rodhe H, Sorlin S, Snyder PK, Costanza R, Svedin U, Falkenmark M, Karlberg L, Corell RW, Fabry VJ, Hansen J, Walker B, Liverman D, Richardson K, Crutzen P, Foley JA (2009) A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461:472–475. doi:10.1038/461472a

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rozelle S, Huang J, Zhang L (1997) Poverty, population and environmental degradation in China. Food Policy 22:229–251. doi:10.1016/S0306-9192(97)00011-0

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Shi W, Tao F, Liu J (2013) Changes in quantity and quality of cropland and the implications for grain production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China. Food Secur 5:69–82. doi:10.1007/s12571-012-0225-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simelton E (2011) Food self-sufficiency and natural hazards in China. Food Secur 3:35–52. doi:10.1007/s12571-011-0114-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun H, Shen Y, Yu Q, Flerchinger GN, Zhang Y, Liu C, Zhang X (2010) Effect of precipitation change on water balance and WUE of the winter wheat–summer maize rotation in the North China Plain. Agric Water Manag 97:1139–1145. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2009.06.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Yokozawa M, Liu J, Zhang Z (2009) Climate change, land use change, and China’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective. Clim Change 93:433–445. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9491-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Zhang S, Zhang Z (2013) Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes. Reg Environ Change 13:743–759. doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0357-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tilman D, Cassman KG, Matson PA, Naylor R, Polasky S (2002) Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature 418:671–677. doi:10.1038/nature01014

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort BL (2011) Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proc Natl Acad Sci 108:20260–20264. doi:10.1073/pnas.1116437108

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ugarte DDLT (2000) The economic impacts of bioenergy crop production on US agriculture. USDA (US)

  • Van Ginkel M, Van Der Schaar W, Zhuping Y, Rajaram S (1996) Inheritance of resistance to scab in two wheat cultivars from Brazil and China. Plant Dis 80:863–867

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Wart J, Kersebaum KC, Peng S, Milner M, Cassman KG (2013) Estimating crop yield potential at regional to national scales. Field Crops Res 143:34–43. doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2012.11.018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang P, Zhang Z, Chen Y, Wei X, Feng B, Tao F (2015) How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China? Climatic Change 1–16. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1545-5

  • Xiao X, Boles S, Liu J, Zhuang D, Frolking S, Li C, Salas W, Moore B III (2005) Mapping paddy rice agriculture in southern China using multi-temporal MODIS images. Remote Sens Environ 95:480–492. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2004.12.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiong W, Holman I, Lin E, Conway D, Jiang J, Xu Y, Li Y (2010) Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China. Agric Ecosyst Environ 135:58–69. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2009.08.015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiong W, Holman I, Lin E, Conway D, Li Y, Wu W (2012) Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China. Environ Res Lett 7:044014. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang G, Maroof MS, Xu C, Zhang Q, Biyashev R (1994) Comparative analysis of microsatellite DNA polymorphism in landraces and cultivars of rice. Mol Gen Genet MGG 245:187–194. doi:10.1007/BF00283266

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang T, Huang Y (2012) Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008. J Sci Food Agric 92:1643–1652. doi:10.1002/jsfa.5523

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang T, Huang Y, Yang X (2013a) Climate warming over the past three decades has shortened rice growth duration in China and cultivar shifts have further accelerated the process for late rice. Glob Change Biol 19:563–570. doi:10.1111/gcb.12057

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang T, Yang X, Wang H, Li Y, Ye Q (2013b) Climatic and technological ceilings for Chinese rice stagnation based on yield gaps and yield trend pattern analysis. Glob Change Biol. doi:10.1111/gcb.12428

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Z, Chen Y, Wang P, Zhang S, Tao F, Liu X (2014a) Spatial and temporal changes of agro-meteorological disasters affecting maize production in China since 1990. Nat Hazards 71:2087–2100. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0998-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Z, Wang P, Chen Y, Zhang S, Tao F, Liu X (2014b) Spatial pattern and decadal change of agro-meteorological disasters in the main wheat production area of China during 1991–2009. J Geog Sci 24:387–396. doi:10.1007/s11442-014-1095-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Z, Song X, Tao F, Zhang S, Shi W (2015) Climate trends and crop production in China at county scale, 1980 to 2008. Theoret Appl Climatol 123:1–12. doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1343-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou Y, He Z, Sui X, Xia X, Zhang X, Zhang G (2007) Genetic improvement of grain yield and associated traits in the northern China winter wheat region from 1960 to 2000. Crop Sci 47:245–253. doi:10.2135/cropsci2006.03.0175

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zwart SJ, Bastiaanssen WG (2004) Review of measured crop water productivity values for irrigated wheat, rice, cotton and maize. Agric Water Manag 69:115–133. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2004.04.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41321001), the National Basic Research Program of China (41571493; 41571088, 31561143003) and the Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities (Grant No. B08008) funded this study.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology/Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE/Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Xing Wei, Zhao Zhang & Pin Wang

  2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Fulu Tao

Authors
  1. Xing Wei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Zhao Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Pin Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Fulu Tao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhao Zhang.

Additional information

Editor: Helmut Haberl.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wei, X., Zhang, Z., Wang, P. et al. Recent patterns of production for the main cereal grains: implications for food security in China. Reg Environ Change 17, 105–116 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0977-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0977-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation