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Decadal variability of floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains

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Abstract

Floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains considerably contribute to the total flood damage in Poland. Therefore, the question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed in this region is of high interest. This study aims at investigating the inter-decadal variability of magnitude, frequency and seasonality of floods since the mid-twentieth century, to better understand regional changes. The analysis was accomplished in a multi-temporal approach whereby trends are fitted to every possible combination of start and end years in a record. Detected trends were explained by estimating correlations between the investigated flood parameters and different large-scale climate indices for the northern hemisphere, and by trends found in intense precipitation indices, number of days with snow cover, cyclonic circulation types, temperature and moisture conditions. Catchment and channel changes that occurred in the region over the past decades were also considered. Results show that rivers in the area exhibit considerable inter-decadal variability of flows. The magnitude and direction of short-term trends are heavily influenced by this inter-decadal variability; however, certain patterns are apparent. More extreme, although perhaps less frequent floods are now likely to occur, with a shift in the seasonality, decreasing flood magnitudes in winter and increasing during autumn and spring. The identification of the factors contributing to the occurrence of flood events and their potential changes is valuable to enhance the flood management in the region and to improve the resilience of the population in this mountainous area.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains; PSPB no. 153/2010). The project makes use of hydrometeorological data provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management–State Research Institute (IMGW–PIB) and data published (1954–1981) in the annals “Opady Atmosferyczne”. Data for the period 1999–2012 were also supplemented from SYNOP messages database OGIMET (Valor 2013). Large-scale climate indices data were downloaded from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Authors also thank Ryszard Kaczka, Iwona Pińskwar, Christophe Corona, and Annina Sorg for their valuable collaboration; and the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dendrolab.ch, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1 + 3, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva & Markus Stoffel

  2. Climatic Change and Climate Impacts, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 1227, Carouge, Switzerland

    Markus Stoffel

  3. Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Cracow, Poland

    Bartłomiej Wyżga

  4. Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland

    Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

  5. Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia, Sosnowiec, Poland

    Bartłomiej Wyżga, Barbara Czajka & Tadeusz Niedźwiedź

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  1. Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva
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Correspondence to Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva.

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Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Stoffel, M., Wyżga, B. et al. Decadal variability of floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains. Reg Environ Change 16, 603–615 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0694-9

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