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Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage: a simulation study

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Abstract

We estimated the effect of adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage under climate change on life-style services and forest yield in a south-Swedish forest using an integrated modelling approach. The ECHAM5/CCLM models had been used to produce a reference climate and a climate change scenario for the A1B emission scenario. Using the FinnFor model we estimated the effect of the climate change scenario on the site index for three common commercial tree species for the period 2001–2100. The adjusted site index was applied in projections of the forest using the Forest Time Machine model. The WINDA-GALES model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage in simulated future states of the forest. Effects of increasing forest owner motivation to take measures to adapt to climate change were simulated by comparing the effects of introducing adaptive measures in years 2001 and 2051, respectively. These adaptive measures had been identified in consultation with stakeholders. In the simulations, adaptive regimes resulted in generally increased yield, increased hunting potential and a higher number of forest management operations to be carried out, although other aspects of recreation services were reduced. The net return remained unaffected by most of the adaptive forest management regimes. The simulations were made without accounting for effects of predicted wind damage on the states of the forest. Forest owners perceiving increased risk of wind damage but also risk to their life-style would have to balance adaptive measures between these risks. We conclude that adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage may impact on life-style services. Hence, this may affect the process of adaptation to an increasing risk of wind damage in southern Sweden.

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Acknowledgments

The study was supported by the EU project MOTIVE (“Models for adaptive forest management”, grant 226544) to M.A., S.K., B.G. and K.B. and the foundation for strategic environmental research programme Mistra-SWECIA to K.B. The ENSEMBLES data used in this work was funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539) whose support is gratefully acknowledged.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Asa Experimental Forest and Research Station, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 360 30, Lammhult, Sweden

    Mikael Andersson

  2. School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 111, 80101, Joensuu, Finland

    Seppo Kellomäki

  3. INRA, UMR 1391 ISPA, 33140, Villenave D’Ornon, France

    Barry Gardiner

  4. Bordeaux Sciences Agro, UMR 1391 ISPA, 33170, Gradignan, France

    Barry Gardiner

  5. Department of Landscape Architecture, Planning and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 58, 230 53, Alnarp, Sweden

    Kristina Blennow

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  1. Mikael Andersson
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  2. Seppo Kellomäki
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  3. Barry Gardiner
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  4. Kristina Blennow
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Correspondence to Kristina Blennow.

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Andersson, M., Kellomäki, S., Gardiner, B. et al. Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage: a simulation study. Reg Environ Change 15, 1489–1500 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0687-8

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