Abstract
The displacement of a reservoir landslide mostly shows step-like deformation that is affected by the reservoir water level fluctuation and rainfall. To depict the sharp increase characteristics of step-like deformation, this paper presents a dynamic hybrid model for forecasting landslide displacement on the basis of empirical mode decomposition (EMD), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and error correction. First, EMD was adopted to decompose the original monitoring data of landslide displacement and extract the trend and periodic displacements. The GRU models were then established for the prediction of the trend and periodic displacements, automatically updating training set to realize the dynamic prediction of landslide displacement. Meanwhile, the GRU model takes the periodic displacement influenced by the reservoir level fluctuation and rainfall of the prior-periods as input variables, and an error sequence is extracted and corrected to improve the accuracy of the periodic displacement forecast. Finally, the cumulative landslide displacement can be obtained by superimposing the forecasted value of each sub-item displacement. A case study of a step-like landslide verifies the validity of the proposed hybrid approach, and the forecast results are compared with those of support vector machine (SVM), long short-term memory (LSTM), and GRU models. The comparison results show that the hybrid dynamic model performs better than the other methods in step-like displacement prediction, with the smallest RMSE of 10.4020, MAE of 6.3791, MAPE of 0.0022, and the highest R of 0.9998. The proposed forecast model cannot only capture the local change of accelerated deformation state better but also effectively reduce the expanding error in displacement prediction with long time series, which provides a significant basis for the prediction and prevention of reservoir landslide with step-like deformation.
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Data availability
The datasets used or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Change history
31 May 2023
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-023-03270-9
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Funding
The work presented in this paper is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51939004; U2240221), Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (2022KJZ11).
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The original online version of this article was revised: This note aims to correct an error of the second author's name in the online published file. In the online version of the second author's name is Yi Qi, but his real name is Yi Qin. The second author's name "Yi Qi" should be revised to “Yi Qin”. The author apologizes for this error.
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Meng, Y., Qin, Y., Cai, Z. et al. Dynamic forecast model for landslide displacement with step-like deformation by applying GRU with EMD and error correction. Bull Eng Geol Environ 82, 211 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-023-03247-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-023-03247-8