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Evaluation of debris flow and landslide hazards using ensemble framework of Bayesian- and tree-based models

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Abstract

The modeling and prediction of land movement susceptibility hazards, i.e., debris flow, landslide, and rock fall, can assist in controlling and preventing a variety of societal and environmental damages. The purpose of this study was to develop a land movement susceptibility hazard model of debris flow, landslide, and multiple land movement, i.e., combination of debris flow and landslide in the Saveh city of Markazi Province, Iran, using an ensemble of Bayesian generalized linear model (BGLM), sparse partial least squares (SPLS), boosted tree (BT), and random forest (RF) algorithms. For this purpose, 167 debris flow points, 261 landslide points, and 257 multiple (debris flow and landslide) points were identified based on field visits and available information, and 15 suitable conditioning factors were prepared as independent variables for this study. The accuracy and efficiency of the models were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and other statistical indices. The variable importance result indicates that slope is the most important factor in debris flow (25.53), landslide (31.39), and multiple hazard (41.90) occurrences. The accuracy assessment results in the validation phase revealed that the RF is the most optimal among the applied algorithms, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.90, 0.94, and 0.89 for debris flow, landslide, and multiple (D + L) hazard modeling. The findings of this study indicated that the use of a Bayesian and tree-based ensemble model in preparing a land movement-related disaster map could be useful among policymakers and land use planners for sustainable land use management and practices.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, The University of Burdwan, Burdwan, West Bengal, India

    Subodh Chandra Pal, Rabin Chakrabortty & Asish Saha

  2. Department of Watershed Management Engineering and Sciences, Faculty in Agriculture and Natural Resources, Tehran University, Tehran, 14174-14418, Iran

    Saeid Khosrobeigi Bozchaloei

  3. Institute of Applied Technology, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong province, Vietnam

    Quoc Bao Pham

  4. Faculty of Water Resource Engineering, Thuyloi University, 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam

    Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh

  5. HUTECH University, 475A, Dien Bien Phu, Ward 25, Binh Thanh District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Duong Tran Anh

  6. Department of Watershed Management Engineering and Sciences, Faculty in Natural Resources and Marine Science, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, 14115-111, Iran

    Saeid Janizadeh

  7. Department of Forestry, Faculty in Natural Resources and Marine Science, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, 14115-111, Iran

    Kourosh Ahmadi

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  1. Subodh Chandra Pal
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  7. Duong Tran Anh
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  8. Saeid Janizadeh
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  9. Kourosh Ahmadi
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Correspondence to Duong Tran Anh.

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Pal, S.C., Chakrabortty, R., Saha, A. et al. Evaluation of debris flow and landslide hazards using ensemble framework of Bayesian- and tree-based models. Bull Eng Geol Environ 81, 55 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02546-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02546-2

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