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Performance evaluations of CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of rainfall and temperature in the Bale Eco-Region, Southern Ethiopia

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Abstract

Identifying best performing climate models is indispensable for better understanding of the future climate and its impact as well as for planning effective climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. This research aims to identify the best performing Global Climate Models (GCMs) products from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating rainfall and temperature in the Bale Eco-Region (BER), Southern Ethiopia. In this study, evaluations were performed for ten CMIP6 GCMs against observed and reanalysis rainfall and temperature products in terms of how well the GCMs reproduce rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) from daily to annual temporal scales during 1995–2014 period. Performance evaluations were performed using the Comprehensive Rating Index (CRI), which is based on four statistical metrics. The best performing CMIP6 model(s) were bias-corrected by Distribution Mapping (DM) for future climate analysis at different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and at the eco-region level. The study used projections of climate variables in the near future (2021–2040), mid-century (2041–2060) and late century (2081–2100) periods. Three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were considered as future climate scenarios. The result indicated that BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-CM6-1 and MRI-ESM2-0 are relatively better for simulating the rainfall climatology of the BER from the daily to annual temporal scales. EC-Earth3, Ec-Earth3-Veg and MPI-ESM1-2-LR are also comparatively better for simulating Tmax while CNRM-CM6-1, EC-Earth3-Veg and EC-Earth3 outperformed for simulating Tmin in the studied temporal scales. After careful evaluations, climate change analysis was performed using the ensemble mean of BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-CM6-1 and MRI-ESM2-0 for rainfall, EC-Earth3 for Tmax and the ensemble mean of CNRM-CM6-1 and EC-Earth3-Veg for Tmin. Accordingly, the annual rainfall is expected to decrease in the near future in the three scenarios in the alpine (2–5%), temperate (11–14%) and sub-tropical (7–9%) AEZs as well as the BER spatial scales (2–5%), but rainfall is expected to increase in the late century period. In contrast, rainfall is expected to increase in the tropical AEZ in both the near future (3–11%) and late century (25–45%) periods. In the mid-century period, rainfall is expected to increase in the tropical AEZ in all the three scenarios, but it exhibits different directions of changes in the remaining AEZs and BER scale at different scenarios. The finding also revealed an expected increase in both Tmax and Tmin in the different AEZs as well as the BER scale, but the projected temperature increase is high in temperate AEZ. The projected increase of rainfall in the near future in tropical AEZ may reduce the frequently occurring droughts mainly in the lowland parts of the BER. Conversely, the reductions of rainfall in the remaining AEZs may introduce challenges for agriculture, water resources as well as endemic animals. The findings of this study justifies the need for climate models evaluation for each climate variables in order to choose the most appropriate models for localized climate change impact and adaptation studies. In addition, this study also suggested projections of future climate for different AEZs for better decision-making process for the specific AEZs.

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Data availability

Since the observed rainfall and temperature data obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute (EMI) are for self-use only, the authors do not have permissions to share the data. However, the employed MSWEP v2.8, MERRA v2, ERA5 data, and CMIP6 GCMs can be accessed in their website.

Code availability

The codes used in this study can be shared up on a reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The observed climate data of this study was obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute (EMI). The freely available MSWEP v2.8 rainfall as well ERA5 and MERRA v2 temperature data were produced by (Beck et al. 2019), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, respectively. The CMIP6 GCMs data were also freely accessed from the ESFG website. The authors greatly acknowledge these institutions for providing these data. The authors are also very much thankful for the European Union for funding the study. The Authors are also grateful for the Editor of the Journal and anonymous reviewer for the constructive comment, which prominently improves the quality of the paper.

Funding

The study obtained financial support from the European Union.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resource Management, College of Agriculture and Environmental Science, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Temesgen Gashaw

  2. Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, the Netherlands

    Temesgen Gashaw

  3. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Abeyou W. Worqlul

  4. International Water Management Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Meron Teferi Taye, Haileyesus Belay Lakew, Abdulkarim Seid & Amare Haileslassie

  5. Farm Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Girma Ayele

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  1. Temesgen Gashaw
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  3. Meron Teferi Taye
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  4. Haileyesus Belay Lakew
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Contributions

T.G. data preparation and analysis, prepared the first version of the manuscript, and writing-review and editing. A.H. supervised and guided the entire work, and writing-review and editing. A.W.W, M.T.T, H.B.L, A.S and G.A writing-review and editing. All authors read and approved the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Temesgen Gashaw.

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Gashaw, T., Worqlul, A.W., Taye, M.T. et al. Performance evaluations of CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of rainfall and temperature in the Bale Eco-Region, Southern Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04904-y

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