Abstract
Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resource systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the Himalayan Tila river basin, the annual average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions (up to 39% in Tila-2 hydropower project, suggested by ensemble mean). This increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modeling framework presented here is region-specific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.
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Data availability
Daily hydroclimatic data were collected from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal (http://www.dhm.gov.np). These data can be purchased (http://dhm.gov.np/pricelist.html). The projected data were taken from Mishra et al. (2020b) and are available at https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3987736.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to express sincere gratitude to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal, for providing the necessary data to complete this research work. Furthermore, the authors are thankful to Mishra et al. (2020b) for sharing the bias-corrected CMIP6 data for South Asia, including Nepal. Our sincere thanks also go to Dr. Divas B Basnyat for his support and invaluable advice during the study.
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The first author is supported by Water Resources Research and Development Centre, Government of Nepal, under the program Project/Thesis Interns and Researcher Mobilization Program, WRRDC SN: 11.5.40.89.
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Rupesh Baniya: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, writing—original draft. Ram Krishna Regmi: conceptualization, resources, writing—review and editing, supervision. Rocky Talchabhadel: conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, writing—review and editing, visualization. Sanjib Sharma: conceptualization, methodology, writing—review and editing, visualization. Jeeban Panthi: conceptualization, methodology, data curation, writing—review and editing. Ganesh R Ghimire: conceptualization, methodology, writing—review and editing, visualization. Sunil Bista: methodology, formal analysis, writing—review and editing. Bhesh Raj Thapa: writing—review and editing. Ananta M.S. Pradhan: resources, writing—review and editing, supervision. Jebin Tamrakar: writing—review and editing, supervision.
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Baniya, R., Regmi, R.K., Talchabhadel, R. et al. Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 3993–4008 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04863-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04863-4