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In what conditions an urban heat island can initiate deep convection? Theoretical estimations

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Abstract

There is strong empirical evidence that the urban heat islands can initiate storms due to the triggering of the deep convection, which then leads to severe weather events over the large urban areas. However, the conditions under which a triggering may occur are still not well understood. In this study, we present an idealized theoretical framework based on the assumption that the triggering is produced by the buoyant convective plumes generated by the urban heat islands, and we find a theoretical estimation for the conditions under which deep convection may be triggered. We show that the excess virtual potential temperature of the urban heat island is the principal factor which controls the triggering, but only if the convective inhibition is not too large. We also highlight the importance of the urban dimensions on the convective flow of the urban plume, and thus, on the deep convection triggering. It is also demonstrated, on the basis of dimensional arguments, that the mechanically induced convergence, associated with the urban friction, has a negligible impact on the convergence dynamics, which shows that this mechanism cannot lead to deep convective deep convective initiation by itself.

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Acknowledgements

Financial support from the Romanian Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitization through Project PN 23 21 01 01/2023 is acknowledged. The author thanks Andrei Marin for support with manuscript editing and one anonymous reviewer for valuable feedback and comments.

Funding

This work was supported by the Romanian Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitization through the institutional Core Program (Grant number: PN 23 21 01 01/2023).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Theoretical Physics, Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Reactorului 30, Magurele, 077125, Romania

    Cristian V. Vraciu

  2. Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Atomistilor 405, Bucharest–Magurele, 077125, Romania

    Cristian V. Vraciu

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Vraciu, C.V. In what conditions an urban heat island can initiate deep convection? Theoretical estimations. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 567–579 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04652-5

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