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Spatiotemporal temperature trends over homogenous climatic regions of Pakistan during 1961–2017

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Abstract

Rising temperature has increased the frequency, severity, length, and timing of temperature extremes around the globe. The current study examined the spatiotemporal variation of Tmin, Tmax, Tmean, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) over homogeneous climatic zones of Pakistan, using observed monthly datasets from fifty stations for the period 1961–2017. The nonparametric modified Mann–Kendall (MMK), Sen’s slope estimator (SSE), and sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) tests were utilized to investigate the spatiotemporal trends. Cluster analysis and the L-moment approach were used to identify the homogenous climatic regions. In general, seasonal and annual Tmin, Tmax, Tmean, and DTR increased significantly in most sub-regions and the whole country, whereas JJA observed significant decreasing trends in Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean in most sub-regions during 1961–2017. Furthermore, decreasing trends prevailed in seasonal and annual Tmin in most sub-regions and the whole country during 1961–1989, whereas increasing trends were evident during 1990–2017. Tmean exhibited increasing trends on the seasonal and annual time scale in both periods except significant decrease in JJA at –0.16 and –0.20 °C/decade in the first and second periods, respectively. Tmax, Tmean, and DTR inferred decreasing trends in JJA at –0.42, –0.20, and –0.46 °C/decade, respectively, while Tmax and DTR had significant decrease in SON at –0.30 and –46 °C/decade, respectively, in the whole country during 1990–2017. The SQMK results indicate that Tmin, Tmax, Tmean, and DTR observed an increasing trend in DJF and MAM from 1985 onwards, and most of the regions observed significant trends from mid-2000. A negative correlation was observed between annual Tmin and Tmean with elevation, whereas a positive correlation was observed between annual Tmax and DTR with elevation. Pakistan has experienced numerous extreme events like heatwaves and droughts recently. Therefore, future research should investigate changes in air fluxes caused by zonal circulation and anticyclone conditions to explain the temperature variability.

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Data availability

The data used in this study can officially be acquired from the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the Pakistan Meteorology Department for providing temperature data.

Funding

The National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant No. 31870707, supports this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Research Center on Karst Under the Auspices of UNESCO, Institute of Karst Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, No.50, Qixinglu, Guilin, 541004, China

    Azfar Hussain & Jianhua Cao

  2. Department of Applied Mathematics, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan City, Chung-Li, 32023, Taiwan

    Ishtiaq Hussain

  3. Global Change Impact Study Centre, Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Shaukat Ali

  4. Defense and Security, Rabdan Academy, Abu Dhabi, 114646, United Arab Emirates

    Waheed Ullah

  5. School of Natural Sciences, National University of Sciences and Technology, H-12 Campus, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Firdos Khan

  6. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China

    Safi Ullah

  7. Synthesis Research Centre of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modelling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Haider Abbas

  8. Department of Sociology, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi, 44000, Pakistan

    Asima Manzoom

  9. Jianshui Research Station, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, No.35 Tsinghua East Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, China

    Jinxing Zhou

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  1. Azfar Hussain
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Contributions

Conceptualization: Azfar Hussain; methodology: Azfar Hussain, and Ishtiaq Hussain; formal analysis and investigation: Azfar Hussain ; writing, original draft preparation: Azfar Hussain; writing, review and editing: Azfar Hussain, Shaukat Ali, Waheed Ullah, Safi Ullah, Firdos Khan, Haider Abbas, and Asima Manzoom; funding acquisition: Jinxing Zhou; supervision: Jinxing Zhou and Jianhua Cao.

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Correspondence to Jianhua Cao or Jinxing Zhou.

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Hussain, A., Hussain, I., Ali, S. et al. Spatiotemporal temperature trends over homogenous climatic regions of Pakistan during 1961–2017. Theor Appl Climatol 153, 397–415 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04484-3

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