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Trends in climate and influence of climate-driven crop yields in southern coastal region, Bangladesh

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Abstract

The southern region of Bangladesh is one of the most severely affected regions by climate change, notably in terms of crop production. This study aims to analyze the trends in climatic parameters (air temperature, rainfall, and humidity) and their impacts on the yield of four significant crops in the southern coastal district of Bangladesh. The relationship between climatic parameters was estimated using the Mann–Kendall test, the Theil-Sen slope estimator, and multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling on the regional-level datasets from 1990 to 2016. The maximum temperature of the Aus, Aman, Boro, and Wheat crop growing seasons showed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.01), and the magnitude of changes varied from 0.4 to 0.5 °C/decade during the study period. The minimum temperature of the Aus growing season also showed an increasing trend (p < 0.01) at a rate of 0.06 °C/decade. However, the relative humidity of Aus growing season (− 0.7%/decade) and the rainfall of the wheat-growing season (− 87.5 mm/decade) showed significant decreasing trends (p < 0.05). The MLR model revealed that maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall all had a positive influence on Aus paddy production. The humidity had a significant negative impact on Aus and Aman paddy production, while Boro paddy production was adversely influenced by the maximum temperature and rainfall. All explanatory variables positively influenced wheat yield production. Climatic parameters showed significant influences on important crop production in the southern Bagerhat District of Bangladesh. In order to make agriculture sustainable in the face of climate change, this study shows that all the relevant authorities need to look at the climate-resilient crop cultivation system.

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Acknowledgements

Authors would like to acknowledge the anonymous reviewers for improving the quality of the manuscript. They also thank Bangladesh Meteorological Department and UAOs of Bagerhat District for supporting during the study period.

Funding

 Authors thankfully acknowledge the Deanship of Scientific Research for providing administrative and financial support. Funding for this research was given under award numbers RGP/1/139/43 by the Deanship of Scientific Research; King Khalid University, Ministry of Education, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Authors also acknowledge the Ministry of Science and Technology, Bangladesh for providing financial support. 

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400, Bangladesh

    Md. Khalid Hassan Real & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam

  2. Department of Environmental Science and Resource Management, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Santosh, Tangail, 1902, Bangladesh

    Md. Younus Mia

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, King Khalid University, Abha, 62529, Saudi Arabia

    Javed Mallick

  4. Department of Architecture and Planning, College of Engineering, King Khalid University, Abha, 61411, Saudi Arabia

    Ahmed Ali Bindajam

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Contributions

M. K. H. R. designed, planned, conceptualized, and drafted the original manuscript; M. K. H. R. was involved in the statistical analysis and interpretation; M. Y. M. and J. M. contributed to the instrumental setup, data analysis, and validation; M. K. H. R. and A. R. M. T. I. contributed to editing the manuscript, literature review, and proofreading; and A. A. B. and A. R. M. T. I. were involved in software, mapping, and proofreading during the manuscript drafting stage.

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Correspondence to Javed Mallick or Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam.

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Real, M.K.H., Mia, M.Y., Mallick, J. et al. Trends in climate and influence of climate-driven crop yields in southern coastal region, Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 152, 167–180 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04382-8

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