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Seasonal probabilistic precipitation prediction in Comahue region (Argentina) using statistical techniques

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Abstract

This work proposes a probabilistic forecast of seasonal precipitation in the basins of the Limay, Neuquén, and Negro rivers in the north of Argentine Patagonia. The Comahue region is particularly important because part of the country’s hydroelectric energy is generated there. The amount of winter precipitation modulates the flow of rivers, and therefore, prior knowledge of possible precipitation thresholds is very useful for decision-makers. Ensembles made up of statistical models that explain more than 50% of the precipitation were used and were generated with multiple techniques such as linear regression, generalized additive models, support vector regression, and artificial neural networks. The result showed that the forecasts are better in Limay and Neuquén river basins in winter than in Negro River basin. Brier Skill Score values indicate that the probabilistic forecast is better than the climatology in winter, in Neuquén and Limay basins for below and above normal categories.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are not publicly available but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Code availability

Not applicable.

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Acknowledgements

Rainfall data was provided by the National Meteorological Service of Argentina (SMN), the Sub-secretary of Hydric Resources (SsRH), the Territorial Authority of Comahue basin (AIC), and the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA). Maps from Argentine National Geographic Institute (IGN) and data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM), were used.

Funding

This work was supported by 2020–2022 UBACyT 20020190100090BA and 2018–2020 UBACyT 20620170100012BA projects.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de La Atmósfera Y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Marcela Hebe González & Maximiliano Vita Sanchez

  2. CONICET–Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar Y La Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Marcela Hebe González & Alfredo Luis Rolla

  3. CNRS–IRD–CONICET–UBA, Instituto Franco-Argentino Para El Estudio del Clima Y Sus Impactos (IRL 3351 IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Marcela Hebe González & Alfredo Luis Rolla

  4. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Alfredo Luis Rolla

  5. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Maximiliano Vita Sanchez

Authors
  1. Marcela Hebe González
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  2. Alfredo Luis Rolla
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  3. Maximiliano Vita Sanchez
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by all the authors. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alfredo Luis Rolla.

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Supplementary Information

Supplementary material is available and consists of the description of the predictors used in the multi-model for each basin and for each quarter.

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Supplementary file1 (DOCX 27 KB)

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González, M.H., Rolla, A.L. & Sanchez, M.V. Seasonal probabilistic precipitation prediction in Comahue region (Argentina) using statistical techniques. Theor Appl Climatol 151, 1483–1495 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04324-w

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