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Spatiotemporal analysis of drought by CHIRPS precipitation estimates

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Abstract

Drought is one of the most devastating natural hazards causing considerable losses in all climatic zones of the world. It is one of the most complex and the least understood hazards at the same time because of its spatially heterogeneous and temporally variable character. Spatially dense and uniformly distributed ground-based meteorological data are needed for proper spatial and temporal drought analysis. In practice, such data are lacking in general due either to the nonexistence of ground stations or their uneven and scarce distribution over a region. This creates a great potential in the use of satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) such as the long-period high-resolution Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data in drought analysis. In this study, we aim to analyze drought over the Kucuk Menderes River Basin in the western part of Turkey by using the CHIRPS data, which were found highly correlated with precipitation in the local ground stations. The analysis was performed by considering the spatial variability and temporal change in the drought characterization based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated at the 3-month (seasonal) timescale. Drought in the river basin was found to have a within-year variability from month to month, and a spatial variability over the basin in any given month. Also, an over-year variability with a decreasing trend exists, which could be considered a signal for more strengthened droughts in the future. The study eventually demonstrates how the CHIRPS SPEs could be useful in the spatial and temporal drought analysis for regions with limited ground-based meteorological data.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the State Meteorology Service (MGM with its Turkish acronym) of Turkey, Climate Hazard Group and UCBS for providing the precipitation data used in this study. This study is a contribution to the Prediction under Change Working Group under the Panta Rhei decade of International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorological Engineering, Samsun University, Samsun, Turkey

    Hakan Aksu & Seyhmus Turker

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Beykent University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Yonca Cavus

  3. Graduate School, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Yonca Cavus

  4. Environmental Hydrological Systems, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany

    Yonca Cavus

  5. Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Hafzullah Aksoy

  6. Department of Geographic Information Systems, General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works, 6th Regional Directorate, Adana, Turkey

    Mehmet Ali Akgul

  7. Department of Mining Engineering, Cukurova University, Adana, Turkey

    Mehmet Ali Akgul

  8. Department of Civil Engineering, Ege University, Izmir, Turkey

    Ebru Eris

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  1. Hakan Aksu
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  2. Yonca Cavus
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  4. Mehmet Ali Akgul
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Aksu, H., Cavus, Y., Aksoy, H. et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of drought by CHIRPS precipitation estimates. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 517–529 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03960-6

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