Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Seasonal rainfall forecast skill over Central Himalaya with an atmospheric general circulation model

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Seasonal forecasts of monsoon at regional scales are critical for many applications but are rarely attempted as even the skill at all-India scale is not yet adequate. However, the conventional approach of evaluation of forecast skill for all-India seasonal monsoon rainfall implicitly assumes that the model performance is more or less spatially homogeneous. It is possible, however, that over a climatically diverse region (with large latitudinal extent), the model skill is dependent on geographical location. In particular, over land-locked regions with large orography, like the Himalayan region, the intrinsic dynamics may play the dominant role in interannual variability; this would imply that even a GCM without interannual variability in lower boundary forcing through SST may produce appreciable skill. We explore this hypothesis based on simulations for the period 1980–2003 with multiple initial conditions with an atmospheric GCM already validated at all-India scale. Multi-scale validation of seasonal forecasts is carried out at regional (Uttarakhand) to station scale over Central Himalaya with multi-source observations. In accordance with our hypothesis and for realizable forecast skill with an atmospheric GCM, the simulations are conducted with climatological monthly SST. At regional (Uttarakhand) scale, the interannual variability in composite observation and ensemble simulation are correlated at 99% significant level, with phase synchronization of about 75%. At station scale, also the skill is found to be non-trivial, especially with respect to gridded observations. Our results thus provide an effective methodology for seasonal forecasting at regional scale over certain geographical locations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ajaymohan RS (2007) Simulation of South-Asian summer monsoon in a GCM. Pure Appl Geophys 164:2117–2140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhaskaran B, Jones RG, Murphy JM, Noguer M (1996) Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon using a nested regional climate model: domain size experiments. Clim Dyn 12:573–587

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bollasina MA, Ming Y, Ramaswamy V (2011) Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian Monsoon. Science 334:502–505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dash SK, Mamgain A, Pattanayak KC, Georgi F (2013) Spatial and temporal variations in Indian summer monsoon rainfall and temperature: an analysis based on RegCM3 simulations. Pure Appl Geophys 170:655–674

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DelSole T, Shukla J (2012) Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 39(9):L09703. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Knutti R, Solomon S, Phillips AS (2012) Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat Clim Chang 2:775–779. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1562

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimri AP (2012a) Atmospheric water budget over the western Himalayas in a regional climate model. J Earth Syst Sci 121(4):963–973

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimri AP (2012b) Wintertime land surface characteristics in climate simulations over the western Himalayas. J Earth Syst Sci 121(2):329–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimri AP, Ganju A (2007) Wintertime seasonal scale simulation over Western Himalaya using RegCM3. Pure Appl Geophys 164:1733–1746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimri AP, Niyogi D (2012) Regional climate model application at subgrid scale on Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas. Int J Climatol 33:2185–2205. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3584

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eitzen ZA, Randall DA (1999) Sensitivity of the simulated Asian summer monsoon to parameterized physical processes. J Geophys Res 104:12177–12191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fasullo J (2012) A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate. Clim Dyn 39:1137–1147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fox-Rabinovitz MS, Cote J, Deque M, Dugas B, McGregor J (2006) Variable-resolution GCMs: stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP). J Geophys Res 111:D16104. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006520

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN (1998) Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: external conditions versus internal feedbacks. J Clim 11:501–522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami P, Barua J (2011) Urban air pollution: process identification, impact analysis and evaluation of forecast potential. Meteorog Atmos Phys 110(3–4):103–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami P, Gouda KC (2009) Comparative evaluation of two ensembles for long-range forecasting of monsoon rainfall. Mon Weather Rev 137:2893–2907

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami P, Gouda KC (2010) Evaluation of a dynamical basis for advance forecasting of the date of onset of monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev 138:3120–3141. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR2978.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami P, Mallick S (2011) Objective bias correction for improved skill in forecasting diurnal cycles of temperature over multiple locations: the summer case. Weather Forecast 26(1):26–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2005) Dynamics of “internal” interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM. J Geophys Res 110:D24104. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN, Madhusoodanan MS, Neema CP, Sengupta DA (2006) Physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 33:L02706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024803

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami P, Himesh S, Goud BS (2010) Impact of urbanization on tropicalmesoscale events: investigation of three heavy rainfall events. Meteorol Z 19(4):385–397 Special Issue On Regional Climate Modeling

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami P, Murty US, Rao MS, Avinash K (2012) A model of malaria epidemiology involving weather, exposure, and transmission validated over north East India. PLoS One 7(11):e49713. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0049713

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greene AM, Robertson AW, Smyth P, Triglia S (2011) Downscaling projections of Indian monsoon rainfall using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:347–359. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.788

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hourdin F, Ionela M, Bony S, Codron F, Dufresne J-L, Fairhead L, le Filiberti M-A, Friedlingstein P, Grandpeix JY, Krinner G, LeVanP LZ-X, LottHouze F (2006) The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. ClimDyn 27:787–813. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0158-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ihara C, Kushnir Y, Cane MA, de la Peña VH (2007) Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its link with ENSO and Indian Ocean climate indices. Int J Climatol 27:179–187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joshi S, Kar SC (2018) Intraseasonal variability of Indian monsoon as simulated by a global model. Pure Appl Geophys 175:2323–2340. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1786-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kar SC (2007) Global model simulations of interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon using observed SST variability NCMRWF Research Report 2007/2

  • Kar SC, Sugi M, Sato N (2001) Interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon and internal variability in the JMA global model simulations. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 79(2):607–623

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitoh A, Kusunoki S (2009) East Asian summer monsoon simulation by a 20-km mesh AGCM. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0285-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitoh A et al (2013) Monsoons in a changing world: a regional perspective in a global context. J Geo Phys Res 118:3053–3065

    Google Scholar 

  • Knutti R, Sedláček J (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat Clim Change 3:369–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kodra E, Ghosh S, Ganguly AR (2012) Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology. Environ Res Lett 7(1):014012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni A, Patwardhan S, Krishna Kumar K, Ashok K, Krishnan R (2013) Projected climate change in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region by using the high-resolution regional climate model PRECIS. Mt Res Dev 33:142–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lal M, Cubasch U, Perlwitz J, Waszkewitz J (1997) Simulation of the Indian monsoon climatology in the ECHAM3 climate model: sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Int J Climatol 17:847–858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laval K, Raghava R, Polcher J, Sadourney R, Forichon M (1996) Simulation of 1987 and 1988 Indian monsoon using LMD GCM. J Clim 9:3357–3371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li C, Yanai M (1996) The onset and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to land-sea thermal contrast. J Clim 9:358–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA et al (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate Chang: the physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 747–845

    Google Scholar 

  • Ménégoz M, Gallée H, Jacobi HW (2013) Precipitation and snow cover in the Himalaya: from reanalysis to regional climate simulations. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:3921–3936

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mizuta R, Yoshimura H, Murakami H, Matsueda M, Endo H, Ose T, Kamiguchi K, Hosaka M, Sugi M, Yukimoto S, Kusunoki S, Kitoh A (2012) Climate simulations using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km grid. J Meteor Soc Jpn 90A:233–258. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-A12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nanjundiah RS (2000) Seasonal simulation of the monsoon with the NCMRWF model. Curr Sci 78(7):869–875

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan M, Bhate MJ, Kale JD, Lal B (2006) High- resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Curr Sci 91:296–306

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajendran K, Kitoh A (2008) Indian summer monsoon in future climate projection by a super high resolution global model. Curr Sci 95:1560–1569

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajendran K, Kitoh A, Srinivasan J, Mizuta R, Krishnan R (2012) Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate- projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM. Theor Appl Climatol 110:555–571. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0690-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramesh KV, Goswami P (2014) Assessing reliability of regional climate projections: the case of Indian monsoon. Nat Sci Rep 4:4041. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep04071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sabin TP, Krishnan R, JosefineGhattas SD, Dufresne J-L, Hourdin F, Pascal T (2013) High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a variable resolution global climate model. Clim Dyn 41(1):173–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sabre M, Hodges K, Lavel K, Polcher J, Desalmand F (2000) Simulation of monsoon disturbance in the LMD GCM. Mon Weather Rev 128:3752–3771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadourny R, Lavel K (1984) Journey and July performance of the LMD general circulation model. In: Berger A (ed) New perspectives in climate modelling. Elsevier, pp 173–198

  • Sharma OP, Upathyaya HC, Braine-Bonnaire, Sadourney R (1987) Experiments on regional forecasting using a stretched coordinate general circulation model: short and medium range numerical weather prediction. J Meteor Soc Jpn 65:263–271

    Google Scholar 

  • Sinha P, Mohanty UC, Kar SC, Kumari S (2013) Role of the Himalayan orography in simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using RegCM3. 635 Pure Appl Geophys 171(7):1385–1407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber KR, Hameed S, Potter GL, Boyle JS (1994) Simulation of the northern summer monsoon in the ECMWF model: sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Mon Weather Rev 122:2461–2481

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tiedtke MA (1989) Comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon Weather Rev 117:1799–1800

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tiwari PR, Kar SC, Mohanty UC, Kumari S, Sinha P, Naira A, Deya S (2014) Skill of precipitation prediction with GCMs over North India during winter season. Int J Climatol 34:3440–3455. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner AG, Annamalai A (2012) Climate change and the south Asian summer monsoon. Nat Clim Chang 2:587–595. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Ding Q (2006) Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years. Geophys Res Lett 33:L06711

    Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Moore A, Loschnigg J, Leban M (1999) Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98. Nature 401:356–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yatagai A et al (2009) A 44-year daily networked precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense net-worked of rain gauges. Sci Online Lett Atmos 5:137–140 http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou T, Li Z (2002) Simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon using a variable resolution atmospheric GCM. Clim Dyn 19:167–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the CSIR network project Integrated Analysis for Impact, Mitigation, and Sustainability (IAIMS). Sneh Joshi acknowledges support from Ministry of Earth Science (MoES), Er. K. Kumar, Senior Scientist, GBPIHED, Kosi-Katarmal, Almora. K. C. Gouda acknowledges SERB/DST, Govt. of India for the project SB/S4/AS-120.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India

    Sneh Joshi

  2. CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Wind tunnel Road, Bangalore, 560037, India

    K. C. Gouda

  3. Institute of Frontier Science and Applications, Bangalore 560037, India

    Prashant Goswami

Authors
  1. Sneh Joshi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. K. C. Gouda
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Prashant Goswami
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to K. C. Gouda.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 462 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Joshi, S., Gouda, K.C. & Goswami, P. Seasonal rainfall forecast skill over Central Himalaya with an atmospheric general circulation model. Theor Appl Climatol 139, 237–250 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02971-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02971-0

Search

Navigation